Is it the hope that kills you or the lack of hope that kills you? The debate spawned by Ted Lasso, when talking to his AFC Richmond fandom about a daunting trip to Manchester City, pits a duel of wills as old as time, or rather as old as the 1770s: cheery-eyed, American optimism vs. stiff-upper-lipped, British pessimism. As sports fans, we often see our fanbases divided along similar lines, and the divide is always starkest at the season’s inception. The glass-half-full section of the fanbase always wants this year to be the year, that rookie to pan out or the favorite player to make “the leap”. Meanwhile, the glass-half-empty faction just knows there will be injuries, heartbreak and disappointment. The beauty of sports is that we never truly know which faction will be proven right, and so, as we sit here on the dawn of a new NFL season let’s let Ted Lasso remind us not to let the hope, or lack thereof, kill us.

Tier 1: Dum Spiro Spero

Texans -2.5 over Colts

Saints -3.5 over Panthers

Or to translate the Latin, “While I breathe, I hope.” The first week of the season always presents a unique challenge trying to pick against the spread. This is our first real look at most teams and we’ve sifted through at least dozens, maybe hundreds, or possibly thousands of preseason predictions and takes about various teams and now it’s time to condense all of that theory into making an actual pick. Here are two things I think I know: the Houston Texans are a very good football team and the Carolina Panthers are a very bad football team.

If you’re the kind of guy or gal who likes to use a little history with their picks, it’s worth noting that the Indianapolis Colts are 0-9-1 in their last ten season openers. More importantly, all indications are that the Houston Texans got better, not worse, in the offseason adding Stefon Diggs to the Nico Collins/Tank Dell receiving tandem and Joe Mixon to the backfield. That with the further maturation of C.J. Stroud should make this offense difficult to keep up with, especially for a Colts team who has Anthony Richardson essentially hitting reset on his rookie year after an early season-ending injury a year ago. I do love a good quarterback parlay here with C.J. Stroud 300+ passing yards AND Anthony Richardson 50+ rushing yards at +550.

As for the Panthers, all indications are that they got worse, not better, over the offseason. It’s possible, bordering on hopeful (sorry, couldn’t help myself), to believe that Bryce Young will take a major step forward in year two after a baptism by fire a year ago. He still doesn’t have a good offensive line or set of weapons to distribute the ball too, and the defense lost its best player, Brian Burns, in a trade to the Giants. I wouldn’t say I’m pushing my chips forward for the Saints, but if they are an NFC South contender then they must win this game.

Tier 2: A Waking Dream

Packers +2.5 over Eagles

Bears -4.5 over Titans

Seahawks -5.5 over Broncos

Philadelphia being favored over the Packers was the biggest, “Huh?” to me of the week one lines, but I downgraded this pick a tier because of the “Not Being Played On North American Soil” corollary. (Side note: this corollary was much easier to type when I could just call it the “Across the Pond” corollary). Games in different continents get weird, so I couldn’t make it a top tier game, but I do feel confident that the Packers are just better than the Eagles. Green Bay’s offense ascended over the course of the 2023 season and the Josh Jacobs signing in the offseason should only make them more dynamic. Meanwhile, Philadelphia collapsed down the stretch to end the year and had major problems on both sides of the ball. Vic Fangio was brought in to fix the defense, but his scheme is essentially the same as Sean Desai’s, so why will it be better? Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper Dejean, the Eagles’ respective first- and second-round picks who are both cornerbacks, could help but that’s a lot to ask in their first NFL game against a potent offense.

In another story of two franchises moving in opposite directions, the Bears believe they have found the quarterback to lead them out of the competent offense wilderness they’ve been mired in for years, while the Titans inexplicably moved on from the best coach in franchise history in the offseason and traded away long-time cornerstone, Derrick Henry. Caleb Williams has looked every bit the part of Chicago’s savior in the preseason, and while he will certainly have some rookie growing pains at some point this season it won’t be in this game.

Much like Chicago, Denver Broncos fans are desperately hoping, there’s that word again, they’ve found the answer at quarterback with Bo Nix. Sean Payton certainly believes so and isn’t shy about telling anyone who’ll listen. As someone who watched more Bo Nix college film than he cared to, I’m skeptical that he will be the Bronco’s white knight. Seattle’s defense will improve under Mike MacDonald and the addition of Byron Murphy II to the middle of that defensive front.

Tier 3: The Thing with Feathers that Perches in your Soul

Ravens +3 over Chiefs

Bengals -8.5 over Patriots

Dolphins -3.5 over Jaguars

Lions -3.5 over Rams

I just want you to know that I consider the fact that I only found one “bird” team to include in the tier with this quote both a great failure on my writing and a confirmation of my integrity in calling things as I truly see them. Tonight’s NFL kickoff game will feature a rematch of the AFC championship round a year ago, which was the closes the Chiefs came to losing in last year’s playoffs. Baltimore has been seething all offseason. The Ravens also added Derrick Henry to add some firepower to the run game in the offseason. Defending champions classically open the season and are 0-4 against the spread in the last four. I like the Ravens to exact some small manner of vengeance tonight.

For all the talk about hope, two NFL teams are particularly hopeless for the 2024 season. One is the Carolina Panthers, and the other is the New England Patriots. They are so hopeless, in fact, that they aren’t even starting their own chosen franchise savior, Drake Maye, at quarterback. The Bengals have some question marks, mainly about Joe Burrow’s ability to return to pre-wrist injury form and how limited Ja’Marr Chase will be, but this isn’t the week for those questions to scare us away from betting against New England.

Miami and Jacksonville is a little bit of a “shrug emoji” game. I wouldn’t be shocked if you told me Tyreek Hill had as many touchdown receptions as children as Mike McDaniel’s schemed up some new offensive wrinkles while he was getting his “drug lord” perm in the offseason. On the other hand, if you told me that Trevor Lawrence looks the part of a franchise quarterback again and Josh Hines-Allen, distinguished and distuingishing move to add the “Hines”, wreaks havoc on Tua Tagovailoa for four quarters I wouldn’t be that surprised either. The three-and-a-half isn’t my favorite either, but I’m going to lean towards the home team that also has fewer “ifs”.

Nowhere is hope more abundant than in Detroit right now. If you honestly thought you’d see this day for the Detroit Lions fanbase, you’re lying. You may be lying to me or to yourself, but you’re lying all the same. Here we are though. Detroit has a nasty defense that mirrors the attitude of its head coach, an arsenal of weapons and a competent distributor. It may sound odd, but they aren’t dissimilar from the San Francisco 49ers, just without the major weapon that is Kyle Shanahan’s offensive scheme. The Los Angeles Rams come in after having their season end in Detroit last year, but it came down to the wire. Los Angeles is guided by the steady leadership of Sean McVay and Matt Stafford, but replacing Aaron Donald on defense is an impossible task. Los Angeles’s defense will be fine but they are young and this is a difficult assignment.

Tier 4: Finite Disappointment…Infinite Hope

Cowboys +2.5 over Browns

Chargers -3 over Raiders

49ers -4.5 over Jets

If that quote, or fraction of quote rather, doesn’t describe the Cowboys, Chargers and 49ers, albeit in very different respects, then I’m not sure what does. Dallas is the quintessential paper tiger, ever the preseason favorite always the postseason disappointment. San Francisco, meanwhile, has consistently been one of the best teams in football only to come up short to Pat Mahomes in two Super Bowls now. The Chargers are their own brand of hopeful hopelessness. They’ve made the playoffs only to blow a 24-point lead in the Wild Card Round and they’ve given up nine touchdowns to a division rival with an interim coach in a nationally televised game. Yikes! Jim Harbaugh may ultimately prove the coach who can erase the term “Chargering” from our lexicon, but he hasn’t done it yet.

Cleveland’s defense may be able to put the clamps on Dak Prescott and the Cowboys’ offense and is certainly capable of winning this game on their own, but Deshaun Watson has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL since joining Cleveland. The Browns are still without Nick Chubb, who is recovering from last season’s gruesome knee injury, and Dallas’s defense is equally capable of winning a game themselves. I like Dallas as a road dog here.

I feel less confident picking the Chargers in Jim Harbaugh’s debut, but I kept coming back to two principles. First, even though the Chargers have no meaningful home field advantage, they are at home. Second, stripping all else aside, please tell me which coach-quarterback duo you’d rather have: Jim Harbaugh/Justin Herbert or Antonio Pierce/Gardner Minshew/Aidan O’Connell? That’s what I thought. Even if the rest of Las Vegas’s roster is better, I couldn’t get past that.

Tier 5: Call Obi-Wan Kenobi…He’s Your Only Hope

Steelers +3.5 over Falcons

Cardinals +6.5 over Bills

Commanders +3.5 over Bucs

Giants +1.5 over Vikings

Confession time: I always feel like I’ve screwed something up when the first tiers are littered with favorites and I cram all my underdogs into the last two tiers. Realistically, it usually means I probably have, but some of these underdog picks were truly a “hold your nose and pick someone” moment. The first of these is taking the Steelers over the Falcons. This is more of a bet against the Falcons and all of their “NFC South Favorite” buzz. Just because they are the most talented team in a trash division, doesn’t make them good. Also, when was the last time we saw Atlanta beat anyone convincingly? Mike Tomlin has a knack for having the Steelers play teams closer than they should and Atlanta’s modus operandi has always been to play games closer than they should, even if it looks like they should be blowing their opponent out. Also, let’s not discount the Arthur Smith revenge game factor. Justin Fields will eventually relegate Russell Wilson to a bench role, or more accurately Russell Wilson will relegate Russell Wilson to a bench role, but it won’t happen this week.

Buffalo laying six-and-a-half points after losing their most reliable target in the offseason and hosting an Arizona team with all up arrows feels like it might be the sucker bet of the weekend. The only problem is I can’t decide which side of the bet is the sucker. Josh Allen could easily keep the Buffalo offense decent just with his own dual threat capabilities and ability to throw the ball to virtually anyone, but the Kyler Murray-Marvin Harrison Jr. connection (Side note: I’m all in on this connection in the fake football realm) could be lethal out of the game and Arizona could run up and down the field on a Bills defense that had heavy offseason turnover. I think the right play is to just take the points, but I don’t feel confident.

Here’s the ranking of rookie quarterbacks I’m looking forward to betting on this year: Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels……that’s really it. Sorry Bo Nix. Sorry Drake Maye. Michael Penix if you unseat Kirk Cousins at any point you get to be third by default. Tampa Bay is an arrow pointing down franchise and there’s a new hope around the Commanders that I think shows itself in Daniels’s debut. My only cause for concern here is the Commanders’ defense is still putrid.

This seems like it should be the Giants game to lose right? Minnesota is already having to turn to a backup quarterback after J.J. McCarthy’s season-ending meniscus injury and the game is in New Jersey. This could look exceptionally foolish, but I still believe in Brian Daboll as a playcaller and Daniel Jones can’t be worse than Sam Darnold right? Right???? Please answer me! If you want to bet on this game without betting on this game can I interest you in a few props? First, we have Justin Jefferson or Malik Nabers to score the first touchdown in the game at +400. That seems like really good odds considering that Darnold will probably use Justin Jefferson as his first, second and third read on most dropbacks and Malik Nabers is easily the Giants’ most explosive receiver since Odell Beckham, Jr. Neither of these teams have a strong ground game and I think it’s likely the first score comes from outside the red zone, which makes it likely to be a pass to a receiver. In a cross-game prop, you can also get Ceedee Lamb and Justin Jefferson at 200+ combined receiving yards for +130. Lamb going against Cleveland makes that a little more worrisome, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Justin Jefferson cooks and Lamb only needs a few catches to help cash this bet.

Another season is here. Enjoy! Standings will be updated after week one.

Cover Photo Courtesy of Gif Tenor/Apple TV+