Of all the Super Bowl’s I’ve picked since “4 Down Territory” began just over a decade ago, this one has caused the most indecision. I’ve always prided myself on being able to pick the Super Bowl champion based on the play, reaction and body language of conference championship weekend for the respective winners. This year was harder. This year, I was torn between watching San Francisco scratch and claw its way Tony D’Amato-style back into a game it had no business winning for the second week in a row. On the flip side, Kansas City went back to business as usual…kind of. Patrick Mahomes organized some brilliant drives in the first half, but mostly it was Steve Spagnuolo frustrating and discombobulating MVP Lamar Jackson and an exceptionally well-timed punch by L’Jarius Sneed.

Perhaps I also struggled because of the baggage of the season brought into this game. For a good portion of the season, San Francisco has looked like the best team in the NFL. Sure, there was the Christmas Night Massacre at the hands of the Ravens and the missed field goal to lose to the Browns, then there were the two playoff games where they looked vulnerable, but mostly the 49ers have looked like the best team in football. Meanwhile, the defending Super Bowl-champion Chiefs mostly resembled a shell of the team that strutted its way to the second Super Bowl of the Pat Mahomes-era last February. They lost and got shutdown by the lowly Raiders and Broncos, one of which fired its coach and the other jettisoned its quarterback to the bench. There was the Kadarious Toney offsides and Pat Mahomes screaming at officials. Truthfully, Kansas City hardly resembled a team that should be playing past the Wild Card round for much of the year, but then the playoffs came around. Mahomes is still Mahomes. Spags ratchets up the defense for the big games. Travis Kelce shows up when it matters most.

Back and forth. Back and forth. Reading articles and imagining different scenarios for how this game might unfold in my mind. I have leaned both ways multiple times over the last two weeks, and I will have y’all know that I never do that, but this game is different. This game is hard. It’s not hard to imagine a scenario for either team winning in myriad ways. I am truly torn…or was.

I long held the view that San Francisco was the best team I watched play this year. That is littered over the last five months’ worth of columns. I fully expected that if San Francisco were playing in Super Bowl LVIII that this column would be dedicated to defending my pick of the 49ers. Explaining how the pundit narrative that “the quarterback is the only thing that matters” is not only wrong, but frankly absurd. (Side note: those pundits would probably use a Chiefs win here as a landmark case for their flawed view of football roster construction and they’d be so wrong, as I’ll explain later). Discussing how Mr. Irrelevant ascended to Super Bowl-winning quarterback. But then I spent another playoff season watching Patrick Mahomes…

As I sat down to write this column, all I could hear was Robin Williams leaning in my ear whispering, “Carrrrrrpe Diiiiiiem. Seize the day.” That may seem odd or unrelated, but it’s what I thought of. The indelible memory of Dead Poets Society is Peter Keating’s Carpe Diem speech and Ethan Hawke’s defiant standing on the desk. And that’s what I thought of when I think about the fact that we have an opportunity to bet on Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl as an underdog…probably for the last time. This is an opportunity that must be seized.

I am convinced that Mahomes is the second-best quarterback I’ve ever watched. (Sorry Boomers I’m not quite old enough to remember Joe Montana). He’s already an all-time great and he is still at the peak of his powers. His supporting cast is flawed, but we will probably never get this again. Mahomes seems to have that same undeniable “it” factor that Brady and Montana and all the other great quarterbacks have. At the end of the day, he is Ozymandius. We look on his works and, unless we’re Chiefs fans or Swifties, we despair. And now we get him as a Super Bowl underdog? Gather ye monies while ye may.

The Pick: Chiefs +1.5 over 49ers

Bonus Commentary

Here’s where I think the “quarterback is all that matters” crowd will be wrong about this game. As much as Mahomes is the driver for why I think Kansas City is the pick, I think there are two factors that will make the difference between a brilliant Mahomes game in a losing effort and a third Lombardi trophy. The first is Kansas City’s rediscovered ability to win on the ground. Isiah Pacheco has run like his life depended on it for a good portion of these playoffs, and run defense is a vulnerability for the 49ers super collection of talent. I think Pacheco’s ability to run the ball and prevent San Francisco from a) pinning their ears back and speed rushing Mahomes as often as possible and b) committing to blanketing Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce and daring any other receiver to beat them. The second reason is Kansas City’s defense. We’ve heard a lot this year, almost to the point of annoyance, that this is the best defense Kansas City has had in the Mahomes era. It may be an annoying take, but it’s not wrong. Spagnuolo is a defensive mastermind and the equal of Kyle Shanahan’s offensive prowess. He will have a plan to make things uncomfortable for San Francisco and Brock Purdy. He will have something, along with pass rushers Chris Jones and George Karlaftis and lockdown corner L’Jarius Sneed to force some turnover worthy plays out of Purdy. If the Chiefs defense can capitalize on that just once, that may be all the help Mahomes needs.

The Props

Super Bowl Sunday is all about the prop bets. If you’ve made it this far you’ve heard enough from me and these props will probably make sense, so I’m just going to list them for you (maybe with a few parenthetical explanations because I can’t help myself). I did throw a few extra long shots in here because something fun always happens in the Super Bowl. Chris Conley touchdown? Let’s go. Kyle Juszczyk, a.k.a. the best husband in the NFL, 25+ receiving yards? Straight cash homie. Kadarious Toney dusting off the cobwebs and catching another Super Bowl tuddy? Cha-ching. The props:

Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy 50+ combined rushing yards +150 (both teams rush the passer well and both quarterbacks scramble out of pressure well, there will be some QB rushing yards in this game)

Isiah Pacheco 30+ rushing yards in each half +170

Kyle Juszczyk 25+ receiving yards +550

Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl MVP +145

Travis Kelce Anytime TD +100

Exact Score: Kansas City 24 San Francisco 21 +9000

Triple Crown Parlay: Brock Purdy leading passer/Rashee Rice leading receiver/Christian McCaffrey leading rusher +1600

Kadarious Toney Anytime TD +1000

Chris Conley Anytime TD +2800

Isiah Pacheco first TD +500

Christian McCaffrey 2+ TDs +220

Same Game Parlay Special: Isiah Pacheco 60+ rushing yards, Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD, Travis Kelce 50+ receiving yards, Rashee Rice 70+ receiving yards +469

Enjoyed the season! Come back next year for more picks to fade. Thank you all for your readership this year. It truly means a lot to me.

Last Week: 2-0

Playoff Record: 6-6

Season Record: 134-140-10

Cover Photo Courtesy of AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill