There were plenty of dog-themed song titles I could have ripped off to subtitle this week’s column. Who let the dogs out? Seemed too cliché…even 24 years later. Every dawg has its day. Too on the nose. I could have even done Led Zeppelin’s “Black Dog”, but anyone who’s listened to the song would know it’s not even about a dog. No. In the end, inverting Florence + The Machine’s “Dog Days Are Over”, seemed an appropriate choice. As you may have guessed, I’m going with underdogs this week. I feel like some of my recent struggles have been associated with getting too favorite-happy…or I just suck at this and this is a true fade column. Either way, the dog days are definitely not over.

The Mahomes-Jackson Legacy Statement: Chiefs +4.5 over Ravens

This pick boils 100% down to if you give Patrick Mahomes this many points in a playoff game, I’m going to take it every time unless I have an absolute reason not to. Admittedly, this Ravens team, Lamar’s recent play, injuries to Isiah Pacheco and Joe Thuney and Kansas City’s receiving corps (despite recent signs of life) give me some very great reasons not to, but they aren’t absolute. We have seen past postseasons where legendary quarterback play trumps all. Patrick Mahomes is that good. Plus, if it gives us another week of shirtless Jason Kelce stealing Taylor Swift’s shine all the better.

Despite my inability to pick against the spread, we’ve done ok with our props through the playoffs. Lamar Jackson and Mahomes are two of the best quarterbacks in the league (duh) and this is a heavyweight fight. They’ll leave their marks, albeit in different ways I think. I like a few parlays involving both. For Mahomes, you can parlay 200+ passing yards with an Isaiah Likely anytime touchdown at +416. Lamar has shown he likes to target the athletic tight end in the red zone and I don’t think that changes just because Mark Andrews has returned. To keep things all in the Chiefs, you can also parlay Mahomes 250+ passing yards with an Isiah Pacheco anytime touchdown at +287. Pacheco’s energizer bunny running style has been a major reason why the Chiefs offense has looked so much better in the playoffs. I think his involvement is critical to the Chiefs keeping things close or even winning. I also like betting Pacheco 30+ rushing yards in each half at +240. We’ll do the same thing with Lamar. Two parlays. One with his own team and one with the Chiefs. I like the odds on Lamar 50+ rushing yards and Zay Flowers 50+ receiving yards at +203, as well as Lamar 70+ rushing yards and Pacheco 70+ rushing yards at +384.

Here’s the bottom line. This is going to be a legacy statement game for one of the two quarterbacks. Lamar Jackson either vanquishes the greatest quarterback of his generation to get to his first Super Bowl, or Patrick Mahomes adds another feather to his already impressive cap (no Chiefs headdress reference intended) and drags a team that has long looked undermanned to yet another Super Bowl appearance. Call me what you want, but I’m going to take the proven commodity, especially with him getting points.

Don’t Let The Sun Go Down On Me: Lions +7.5 over 49ers

The sun will go down over the course of the later starting NFC championship game, but it will be out and the weather will be beautiful throughout. If you watched the 49ers-Packers divisional round game, you will know that may make all the difference for Brock Purdy. He clearly struggled with the weather last week, but in the intermissions in the rain looked mostly like himself, especially on the game-clinching touchdown drive.

To add a poorly thought out double entendre to the tagline, there was a point in time where the sun could have set on both of these quarterbacks’ time or opportunity to be starting quarterbacks in the NFL. Jared Goff was traded from the Rams to the Lions largely as a throw-in to get him off the roster. Most people, myself included, felt that he was nothing more than a stopgap quarterback in Detroit who could help them be bad enough while they collected talent elsewhere until they landed a franchise quarterback. That may have even been Detroit’s initial plan, but all of that seems foolish now. Let’s not try to talk ourselves into Goff as a star quarterback, but he’s certainly a capable distributor of the football who mostly takes care of the football and gives the talent around him an opportunity to succeed. That description applies almost to a tee to Brock Purdy too. As the 2022 Mr. Irrelevant, most of us thought he would probably never start an NFL game unless it was a Week 18 “rest everyone” game. Certainly no one would have expected him supplanting 2021 number three overall pick Trey Lance, who was thought to be the future franchise quarterback. But here we are and Brock Purdy even spend some time in the sun (sorry couldn’t help myself) as the MVP favorite.

Even though I’ve spent far too long talking about the quarterbacks, this game comes down more to the talent around the two quarterbacks. San Francisco is loaded with offensive weapons and can attack in myriad ways. With Detroit’s secondary struggles, especially on the outside, expect the 49ers game plan to heavily involve trying to exploit that. On the flip side, San Francisco’s excellent pass defense will be difficult for Goff to exploit, but the 49ers front seven is built to rush the passer and defend the pass. This could be a big David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs day. Detroit has some offensive line injuries with Frank Ragnow and Jonah Jackson, who likely will not play, but they have enough depth and talent their to still be successful on the ground, which should open up some playaction and innovative route concepts out of run looks. San Francisco is the better team, but this Detroit team is plenty good enough to stay in this game if they play mistake-free football and can force a few of their own. I think the Lions have enough success in the running game to keep things close.

I’ve talked enough about this game but here are a few props I like based on what was discussed above. Christian McCaffrey and Jahmyr Gibbs 150+ combined rushing yards (+200), Christian McCaffrey or David Montgomery to score first TD (+200), Jared Goff and Brock Purdy each complete 25+ passes (+650). Here are a few same-game parlay options I put together: Christian McCaffrey over 34.5 receiving yards, Jahmyr Gibbs over 22.5 receiving yards and Christian McCaffrey anytime touchdown (+315), then Brock Purdy AND Jared Goff 250+ passing yards and David Montgomery anytime touchdown (+425).

Bonus Props

Here’s to a great two games and some close football. Here are a few bonus props I like for the weekend just for fun. Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes 6+ combined passing touchdowns (+115) feels like a good cover bet for a few longer shot props. I’ve already outlined how important the running game will be in both games, so I like each team to score 1+ rushing touchdown in both games (+480). Consequently, it feels like one of those two bets is almost certain to hit. Lastly, I love the fun prop of “Successful two-point conversion in both games” (+750). Those are long odds, but if you think both games will be close, which I do, there’s a good chance the mathematically right call at some point will be to try a two-point conversion, plus we know Dan Campbell is as aggressive as anyone in the league when it comes to going for two.

Last Week: 1-3

Playoff Record: 4-6

Season Record: 132-140-10

Covery Photo Courtesy of Jamie Squire/Getty Images