Let’s face it, last weekend was kind of a snoozefest. C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love were great stories. The Detroit Lions getting a home playoff win was also a warm and fuzzy moment, but outside of the Rams and Lions game, we got a lot of blowouts. Philadelphia couldn’t get to the airport fast enough. The Cowboys Cowboysed (doesn’t flow as well as “Chargering” and we probably won’t try that one again). The Dolphins froze up stiffer than Andy Reid’s mustache. I can’t promise you this week’s games will be better, but I’m cautiously optimistic they will be and at the very least these games should get offensive. In honor of a weekend full of offense, we’ll bring in our most offensive television character of the 21^st century to tagline each game.

“That’s What She Said”: 49ers -9.5 over Packers

The most memorable Michael Scott quote gets the place of prominence in this week’s picks. Did “The Office” invent the genre of “That’s What She Said” jokes? No. Did it ensure that they would endure (in infamy?) forever? Yes, it did. As long as Peacock exists (sorry to salt that programming wound), “That’s What She Said” jokes will endure.

Green Bay is coming off an impressive win over the Cowboys and it will likely be popular to grab the points here, but not so fast my friend. You could argue that San Francisco will be rusty after a week off (and two weeks off for their starters), but don’t forget that Kyle Shanahan is one of the best coaches in the game and this is a veteran locker room. San Fran will show up ready to play. Jordan Love has proven himself to be a threat as a starting quarterback in this league, but the Packers still have an abysmal defense despite what happened last weekend. Shanahan and Brock Purdy will find multiple ways to attack this defense. I also have a feeling that we’ll look back Monday and realize that the Packers, as opposed to the Texans, were the team that looked a little too good the week before. Some might say they shot their wad too early…that’s what she said.

I like offense this whole weekend and this game is no exception. Here are a few player props that I like for this game. Aaron Jones, Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel to combine for 4+TDs at +320. I do think the Packers best bet is running the ball with Jones against this 49ers defense and that will create passing opportunities for Love in the passing game. In that vein, I like Aaron Jones 25+ rushing yards in each half (+125) and a cross-team parlay of Aaron Jones 50+ rushing yards and Brandon Aiyuk over 4.5 receptions (+130). For some reason, Brock Purdy is the favorite to lead this game in passing yards, but I think Green Bay will be playing from behind, so I like the Jordan Love most passing yards in the game odds at +118. Last, but not least, Run CMC is a machine so grab the McCaffrey 2+ TD odds at +150.

“You Miss 100% of the Shots You Don’t Take. -Wayne Gretzky -Michael Scott”: Lions -6.5 over Bucs

Detroit packing out Ford Field and winning a nailbiter was easily the highlight of the Wild Card round. Tampa Bay kicking around Philadelphia’s corpse for three-and-a-half hours was the lowlight. This line is a little bit higher than I hoped it would be, but the Lions are better than the Bucs and it’s easy to forget that Tampa Bay was limping into the playoffs before mercy killing the Eagles. I was toying with teasing this line down, but then Michael Scott reminded me that Wayne Gretzky told us that we miss the shots we don’t take. Detroit will storm its way into the Championship round. We forget that Goff has significant playoff experience. I would argue that of the team’s left Detroit has the strongest homefield advantage (blah blah Arrowhead, sorry Detroit’s fanbase wants this one more). The Lions will move the ball up and down the field on this Bucs defense and Tampa Bay won’t be able to run the ball on the Lions. The key will be bottling up Baker and not letting him extend plays and rip off some chunk plays out of structure. That’s where Aidan Hutchinson and company come in. All in all, this sets up nicely for Detroit, high line be damned.

If you read the above paragraph, or even perused it, you’ll know some Lions props are coming. Sam LaPorta surprisingly suited up last week and scored a touchdown. He’ll do it again this week (+140). David Montgomery scored the first touchdown last week and you can bet him to repeat it at +550. I also like the David Montgomery anytime touchdown parlayed with Jared Goff 225+ passing yards (+123). If you want to hedge with a Bucs prop, I think Mike Evans is the guy. He was quiet last week and he is probably the one potential gamebreaker for the Bucs this week. I like Mike Evans 80+ receiving yards (+120) and Mike Evans 60+ receiving yards AND an anytime touchdown (+143).

“And I knew exactly what to do. But in a much more real sense, I had no idea what to do.”: Texans +9.5 over Ravens

If that doesn’t sum up how I feel about most of these games, then I don’t know what does. For those who’ve forgotten, this is Michael’s quote after Stanley’s heart attack, which indirectly leads to Dwight’s fabulous Hannibal Lecter impression. (Fff fff fff). I’m torn on this game. On the one hand, I feel like I have underrated Baltimore all year and I kind of need to rectify that. On the other hand, I abandoned the Texans when they had been good to me all year and felt foolish last week. I think the play is to grab the points though. Houston is well-coached and C.J. Stroud has proven that the moment isn’t too big for him. Baltimore is also a team who has proven itself content to win without covering a big spread this year (anyone remember that Cardinals onside kick recovery?). Lamar Jackson is going to win his second MVP award, and he should, and the Ravens will probably advance to the championship round, but I think the Texans are good enough to make them earn it.

My favorite individual prop of this game is Isaiah Likely anytime touchdown at +200. Likely has become a go-to target for Jackson and I expect him to get some red zone opportunities in this game. These odds are probably longer because of the potential for Mark Andrews’ return, which would theoretically take snaps and targets from Likely, but it’s increasingly unlikely that Andrews will be activated. Furthermore, there’s plenty of “12” personnel in this offense. Additionally, I think both Lamar and Stroud go over 225+ passing yards (+178) and I like the either Nico Collins or Zay Flowers to score the first touchdown odds (+440). You can also grab Nico Collins to score the first touchdown odds at +1000. Is there only a 9% chance that Houston gets the ball first, scores a passing touchdown on the first drive and it’s to Nico Collins? Vegas is really good at this so I’m sure the math checks out, but that feels like a bargain.

“I’m not superstitious, but I am a little stitious.”: Bills -2.5 over Chiefs

This one is challenging to me so I found myself resorting to a laundry list of reasons for picking each team. Here’s the list for Kansas City: Pat Mahomes, Mahomes is 8-1-1 as a playoff underdog against the spread, Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo, Josh Allen’s Madden curse, Chris Jones, Rashee Rice’s emergence, better health and the Taylor Swift effect. Here’s the list for Buffalo: Josh Allen’s cannon, Josh Allen’s fake slides, a competent receiving corps, “The Pit”, James Cook, Dalton Kincaid as a red zone threat, Ed Oliver, “13 seconds” revenge game and while it may be hard to beat a team twice in the same season it’s actually harder to beat a team that already beat you in the regular season in the playoffs. Appealing to the side of ‘stition, give me “The Pit” and revenge over the Madden curse and Swiftie magic.

This is the game that, ironically based on who the quarterbacks are and the last playoff meeting, gives me the least confidence in offensive fireworks. The weather also plays some role in that. I’m once again going to be that any quarter will be scoreless at +310. I also like the Dalton Kincaid anytime touchdown odds at +270. I like a cross-team parlay: Josh Allen 200+ passing yards AND Isiah Pacheco 50+ rushing yards at basically even odds. You can also get Mahomes 200+ passing yards and Travis Kelce anytime touchdown +170 (you know, just in case there is a little Swiftie magic).

Last Week: 3-3

Season Record: 131-137-10

Cover Photo Courtesy of LinkedIn