Whether it was Apuleius or Aesop who first said it, we’re all familiar with the adage, “Familiarity breeds contempt.” It also breeds the cat-and-mouse coaching maneuvers that make the NFL playoffs compelling. Each of these matchups has at least a few teams, coaches or players who are very familiar with each other, making this weekend both exciting and exceptionally difficult. I’ll admit up front that this Wild Card Weekend is really hard and I struggled some with every pick.

The NFL playoffs are finally here and it’s time to go game-by-game with the picks. I’ll list each week in order of how good I feel about each game.

Best Bet: Cowboys -7 over Packers

My two biggest hang-ups with this bet were: trusting the Cowboys (and by extension Mike McCarthy) in the playoffs and betting a playoff line this high. Ultimately, I had to go with Dallas with it being in the safe confines of “Jerry World” and my lack of faith in Green Bay’s defense to hold up. Dallas’s offense vs. the Packers defense is the single biggest mismatch of Wild Card Weekend and it’s just too difficult not to imagine a scenario where the Cowboys had a three-touchdown lead in the second quarter and everyone holding a Packers ticket is also holding a pit in their stomach.

Sticking to the narrative that Dallas’s offense is a big mismatch against the Packers’ defense, and this will lead to the Cowboys going up early and the Green Bay offense trying to play catch-up. I like the special bet of CeeDee Lamb and Jaylen Reed to combine for 200+ receiving yards (+240). One thing about Joe Barry’s defense is they will open the umbrella with lots of Cover 2 and Cover 4 to keep Dak from having easy throws down the field. That leads to lots of Jake Ferguson. I like Jake Ferguson over 4.5 receptions (+112) and Jake Ferguson anytime touchdown (+165).

Road Underdog That Feels Destined to Win: Rams +3 over Lions

It’s hard to believe but we’re still only a few years removed from the Rams and Lions quarterback swapping Jared Goff and Matt Stafford. You may also remember Stafford promptly leading the Rams to a Super Bowl title, and now Jared Goff coming into his own in Detroit bringing them their first division title since Henry Ford invented the assembly line (approximately). The Rams have been one of the surprise teams of the year and part of it has been the play of Stafford and his immediate connection with Puca Nakua. The other part has been the emergence of Kyren Williams as a weapon in both the running and the passing game. Detroit was a media darling coming into the season and they have largely lived up to those expectations, but the defense has had some alarming stretches of poor play and that is a source for concern coming into the playoffs. It’s also concerning that Goff won’t have Sam LaPorta as his safety valve after getting injured last week.

Let’s swing for the fences with a few fun props in this game. I like Kyren Williams 2+ touchdowns (+440) and for the bolder, whom I’ve heard fortune favors, Kyren Williams to score the first touchdown AND Amon-Ra St. Brown to score the second touchdown (+4600). If you, like me, also think this might be a backyard-style game with the ball flying all over the yard then you can parlay Matt Stafford 250+ passing yards with Jared Goff 225+ at just worse than even odds (-104) and this is the portion of this segment where I obligatorily remind you that both teams are dome teams.

Homefield Advantage Still Matters: Chiefs -4.5 over Dolphins

Kansas City and Miami have both revealed themselves to be incredibly flawed teams. I was fully prepared to bet against both in the playoffs, and likely still will at some point. I worry about the weather and the atmosphere at Arrowhead being enough of a damper on Miami’s offense to end their season. Tua is finally healthy in a playoff game, but his regular season track record or fading later in the season and in colder climates are enough to go against here. Miami’s injuries have also hampered their pass rush enough that Pat Mahomes should have time to throw, which may mitigate the lack of help he’s received from his receiving corps.

One of my major secrets is that I’m always going to be the under if I’m betting point totals. It’s just the right play. It may not be cool, but neither is tossing money down the toilet. I love the under 44.5 total points for this game, especially if you think the Chiefs win this game then the under should appeal to you. The Dolphins only path to victory here is to outscore the Chiefs, but if this game gets messy then the point total will be down and that favors Kansas City. Isiah Pacheco is the player I like the most in this game and you can parlay Pacheco 40+ rushing yards with Pacheco anytime touchdown for a reasonable rate of return (+110).

Josh Allen’s Santa Claus Problem: Steelers +10 over Bills

I’m well aware that I’m violating the Bill Simmons Playoff Gambling Manifesto here by betting a team I don’t think can win, but what evidence has Buffalo given us that they are going to cover a double-digit spread recently? I think Buffalo is just too good, especially with T.J. Watt out, for Pittsburgh to pull off this upset, but I trust the Steelers defense and Mike Tomlin to keep things reasonably close in frigid Buffalo. Oh what is the Santa Claus problem? Josh Allen can’t help himself handing out presents to everybody. You want a touchdown Stefon Diggs? Here ya go buddy. Minkah Fitzpatrick wants a pick six? You just jump right on this late throw over the middle. Josh Allen is probably going to be a major reason Buffalo wins this game. He also might be a major reason Pittsburgh covers.

Pittsburgh’s defense to score a touchdown anytime is +950. Now, Josh Allen’s turnovers may come in such a way or in a location on the field that doesn’t create an opportunity for the Steelers to house it, but it seems likely that Josh Allen will turn the ball over at some point in this game. It feels like there’s better than a 10% chance that directly results in a Steelers touchdown. Gambling markets are incredibly accurate, so maybe I’m wrong, but this feels like an inefficiency. Let me be clear. I love Josh Allen and think he’s a remarkable talent and he should win a Super Bowl at some point in his career. He’s a dynamic player who impacts the game both with his legs and his arms and in bad weather having him function as a runner could be a huge advantage for the Bills. I kind of like the Josh Allen to lead the game in rushing odds at +700.

Coin Toss #1: Browns -2 over Texans

There are lots of scenarios where this game plays out and Houston advances to the division round, but I think the most likely scenario sees a strong performance from the best unit on the field: Cleveland’s defense. C.J. Stroud is having one of the best rookie quarterback seasons ever, but without Tank Dell, I worry that Stroud’s easy safety valve is gone. Against Cleveland’s defense, I can’t shake the feeling that that will matter. We did recently see Cleveland take Houston to the woodshed and they did it with a remarkable Joe Flacco performance. Is it time for “Playoff Joe”?

One of my major premises is Cleveland’s pass rush making life difficult for C.J. Stroud. Cleveland to record 5+ sacks at +430 is the bet if you are betting on Cleveland. Regardless of who wins, I think either scenario sees a lot of pass attempts for C.J. Stroud. Either Houston wins behind a performance where Stroud is just the best player on the field, or Cleveland’s defense is suppressive enough for Flacco to build a lead and Stroud is having to sling the ball around. Stroud to throw for 250+ yards at even odds is my other favorite bet here.

Coin Toss #2 (Also Should Probably Stay Away): Bucs +3 over Eagles

We’re only two years removed from plucky Philadelphia, led by run-first Jalen Hurts, going to take on the GOAT in Tampa Bay in the Wild Card round. Man can things change in two years. Now Hurts has been paid like a superstar and the Bucs are the plucky team led by the ultimate scrapper: Baker Mayfield. The game will still be played in Tampa thanks to the NFL’s antiquated division rules, but Philadelphia is still favored by three. My only remaining question is: why? Because they have a better record? The Eagles are entering the playoffs with the 29^th ranked defense by DVOA and a banged-up Hurts, A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith. There’s a scenario where Baker gets sacked eight times and Tampa Bay does nothing on the ground and this looks silly, but the Bucs are the better team right now. The aforementioned scenario is just such a possibility that I can’t feel good about it.

Given the uncertainty around this game, I would probably stay away from most of your parlays too, but there will be touchdowns in this game. You can parlay Jalen Hurts (rushing or receiving) touchdown with Rachaad White anytime touchdown to +244. Those feel like bankable odds.

Last Week: 8-8

Regular Season Record: 128-134-10

Cover Photo Courtesy of Patrick McDermott/Getty Images