The tagline may mislead you into thinking that I am suggesting no one cares about Week 18. Colloquially, that is what that phrase means, however this is no mere colloquialism. In this context, it’s a legitimate question. The key to this week, and betting on it, will be identifying the teams where it matters the most. As Ernest Hemingway once put it, “The Playoffs are a fine place and worth fighting for.” I think I agree with both parts.

Tier 1: Games That Matter to One Team (Season Record: 20-15-2)

Steelers -3 over Ravens

Jaguars -3.5 over Titans

Bucs -4.5 over Panthers

Seahawks -3 over Cardinals

John Harbaugh and the Ravens would probably find it hilarious to honor their namesake and bury the Steelers’ playoff hopes alive with a cask of Amontillado, but they don’t get enough thrill out of it to risk major injury before the playoffs when they are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Pittsburgh’s offense has had a surprising shot of energy with Mason Rudolph entering the starting lineup and the defense is still good enough to make life difficult for Tyler Huntley.

Jacksonville feels like the wheels are falling off the wagon at the wrong time, but I trust them in a game where they can clinch the division and Tennessee has no incentive to win outside of screwing the Jaguars. This is a bet on Doug Pederson knowing how to close some ass.

Good grief did Tampa Bay flop as soon as I’d come around on them! What a stinky performance against a bad Saints team. Now Baker’s back is against the wall and another loss finds them on the outside looking in. Carolina is in the unique situation of having no real incentive to win or lose this game, not having their own pick that is already locked in at one (Ouch!). You could argue that Carolina has incentive to try to carry some momentum into the offseason, but that doesn’t really compare with the “win or go home” scenario the Bucs are in.

Seattle doesn’t technically control its own destiny, but all they need is to win and have Green Bay lose. We’ll talk about Green Bay in a little while but expect the Seahawks to pull out all the stops to win this one. The Seahawks looked better with Drew Lock at quarterback, and frankly I’d feel better about this if he were starting, but Arizona has plenty of incentive to not win this game with a shot at getting the number two pick. This, like with Jacksonville, is a bet that Pete Carroll knows how to get his team into the playoffs in a must-win situation.

Tier 2: Games That Matter to Both Teams (Season Record: 18-26-1)

Colts +1.5 over Texans

Saints -3 over Falcons

Dolphins +2.5 over Bills

Saturday night should offer one of the best games of the week. Indianapolis and Houston both face a “win and in” scenario. C.J. Stroud is back and showed no residual concussive effects last week rolling the Titans. Gardner Minshew is a classic overachiever and Michael Pittman is back in the mix after recovering from his own gruesome concussion. Houston’s receiving corps is banged up with Tank Dell and Noah Brown already out and Robert Woods listed as questionable. The Colts have a little more offensive firepower around their quarterback at this juncture of the season, and I think that will make the difference.

The Saints and Falcons both stink. I sincerely hope and pray that neither of them makes the playoffs. New Orleans nauseates me slightly less and has resembled a half-decent football teams a handful of times this season, as such they get my vote and my money here.

There are a lot of reasons to take the Bills here, and that seems to be the consensus pick. What kind of column would this be without a well-placed zag though? Also, there is an outside chance that Buffalo could enter this game knowing they are already in the playoffs. A Steelers loss OR a Jaguars loss OR a Texans-Colts tie clinches a playoff berth for Buffalo before they even take the field on Sunday night. However, they would win the division and claim the two-seed in the AFC (something they should desperately care about) with a win over Miami, so they will be full steam ahead regardless of if their playoff fate hangs in the balance. Miami retains the two-seed and division win with a win, and they should also desperately want that home-field advantage for at least two rounds. Miami, once again, proved their ability to flop (like a fish?) in big games last week, but I think a focused team bounces back this week. Buffalo has won four in a row, but they haven’t always done it very impressively. Bailey Zappe almost pulled off the “Full Delhomme” in the first half last week and Buffalo still couldn’t cover the spread. I don’t trust Miami or Buffalo in a big game to be completely honest, but the Dolphins are a home dog and have a shot to claim the two-seed. Mike McDaniel will have some fun ideas cooked up for this game, and a few of them are bound to work.

Tier 3: Games That Matter to One Person (Season Record: 31-28-3)

Bears +3 over Packers

Patriots -1.5 over Jets

Raiders -2.5 over Broncos

I’m fully aware that the Packers are in a “win and in” scenario and the Bears technically have nothing to gain by winning. However, they also have nothing to gain by losing. Chicago already has the number one pick in the draft locked up thanks to the Panthers’ ineptitude. That fact makes this game extremely important to one person in particular: Justin Fields. This is Fields’ last opportunity to show the Bears front office that he’s the quarterback of the future and that they should draft someone else, like Marvin Harrison, Jr. for example, or trade the first pick in the draft. Would his performance in this game truly make a difference in what Ryan Poles is going to do with the first pick? Probably not, but he’s got to play like it does. Plus, Chicago would love to make things harder on a Green Bay team that typically owns them.

The Patriots and Jets are both out of the playoffs. New York just wants to get to next year and get Aaron Rodgers back to replace the Zack Wilson-Trevor Siemian-Tim Boyle three-headed…kitten? Abomination? Meanwhile, New England technically has a shot to get the number two pick in the draft and end up with either Drake Maye or Caleb Williams, but that’s not what matters most to the current GM. Bill Belichick is still closing in on Don Shula for most wins all-time, and if you think he will abort that mission to tank one game because that might help the Pats get the number two pick then you haven’t paid any attention to what Bill Belichick is about.

Would the Raiders consider promoting interim head coach Antonio Pierce to the permanent role? It seems unlikely, but his players love him, and he has made the Raiders unquestionably better since taking over for Josh McDaniels. I’m not sure if he has a shot or not, but winning this week can’t hurt his chances. Meanwhile, Denver is in all kinds of turmoil right now. It’s hard to believe but they are in no better a spot than the week after they gave up 70 points to Miami, and maybe even worse off considering that this franchise now feels directionless with the impending Russell Wilson divorce.

Tier 4: Games With Seed Implications (Season Record: 24-32-3)

Lions -3 over Vikings

Cowboys -13.5 over Commanders

Giants +5.5 over Eagles

Did the Lions get screwed last week? It sure seems like it. Dan Campbell seemed to think so. Now is not the time to go in “Eff You” mode though, that comes in the playoffs. Maybe with a rematch against the Cowboys? The Lions could technically get the two-seed with a win and a Cowboys loss and an Eagles loss. Unlikely, but not impossible. That is worth playing for, especially considering how much better Detroit seems to play indoors. Meanwhile, Minnesota could make the playoffs if they win AND the Packers lose AND the Seahawks lose AND either the Bucs or Saints lose. If those “ifs and buts” were candy and nuts then we’d all have a Merry Christmas. Basically, this game kind of matters to both teams but probably doesn’t. I’ll just take the better team.

Dallas, aka the beneficiary of the bullshittery (yes that’s a real word and no don’t Scrabble check me) that screwed the Lions last week, is so much better at home than on the road that they should aggressively gun for the two-seed. Plus, with a loss and an Eagles win, Dallas would drop all the way to the 5-seed and get potentially zero home playoff games. The Cowboys need this, and the Commanders need to lose this to lock up the number two pick. You don’t need a crystal ball to figure out what’s going to happen here.

Philadelphia needs to win this game to have a shot at the NFC East and the two-seed in the NFC. Here’s the problem: they aren’t playing good football at all. The Giants looked much better with Tyrod Taylor at the helm and would probably love to knock Philadelphia into a wild card spot, even if that means helping Dallas secure the division. Talk about your all-time “damned if you do” scenarios.

Tier 5: Games That Don’t Matter to The Teams Playing and Shouldn’t to You Either (Season Record: 27-25-1)

Browns +7.5 over Bengals

49ers -4 over Rams

Chiefs +3.5 over Chargers

The only people betting on these games are sharps with inside information, gambling addicts and sociopaths with more money than healthy neurons. Stay away from all of these.

If that’s not strongly worded enough, let me remind you that between six teams, there will be zero starting quarterbacks playing in these three games. Stay the hell away.

Last Week: 5-11

Season Record: 120-126-10

Cover Photo Courtesy of Gene J. Puskar/AP Photo