It’s that time of year again. In your overexuberance (and possibly overindulgence) over the Christmas and New Year’s extended holiday week, you are likely preparing to make several promises to yourself about how to be better in 2024. A few NFL teams are probably making themselves the same promises, whether that be through internal improvements or putting the finishing touches on a season to net a high draft pick. As for me, well, here’s to getting above .500 in 2024.

Tier 1: The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent (Season Record: 19-15-2)

49ers -12.5 over Commanders

Fresh off a Christmas night flop, I still believe that the San Francisco 49ers are the best team in the NFL. There are a lot of takes now about the team, or specifically Brock Purdy, being overrated. This team is still supremely talented on both sides of the ball and Brock Purdy is completely fine, but sometimes being humbled before the playoffs start is a good reminder. Just ask the 2007 Patriots.

San Francisco gets to rebound this week against one of the worst teams in the NFL. I know I’ve had the Commanders covering several times recently, and they only covered one of those. This team is terrible on defense and inconsistent on offense. The 49ers will shred them unless they start sitting players preemptively, which they should not do.

Tier 2: Self-Improvement (Season Record: 17-23-1)

Bills -11.5 over Patriots

Bears -3 over Falcons

Bucs -3 over Saints

Vikings -2 over Packers

If you boiled down all New Year’s resolutions to one over-arching goal, self-improvement would be that root goal. We’re all just trying to get a little bit better. These four teams have founds ways to do that over the course of the season.

How far have we come this season from that opening Monday night with the Bills losing on a punt return to the Jets? Since then, we’ve seen a Buffalo tailspin culminating with a number of “What’s Josh Allen’s problem?” thinkpieces, a terrible rash of defensive injuries, and then improvement cresting with a blowout win over Dallas two weeks ago. Buffalo let a bad Chargers team hang around too long last week, but they did have to go to the West Coast on a short week. New England shouldn’t even try to win this game. They have their own pick, unlike the Panthers, and it would behoove them at this point to maximize their chances of having their choice of a quarterback of the future.

It seems not that long ago that Chicago may have also been in the first pick sweepstakes, but then Justin Fields returned from injury and reinvigorated the Bears’ season and his future as a starting NFL quarterback. Apart from Fields’ improvement, Chicago’s defense has actually played reasonably well of late. Atlanta beat the Colts last week in one of a few “Huh?” scores from the week, but it would be foolish to keep betting into this Falcons team with a lame duck coach and quarterback.

It’s time to finally admit defeat and recant my “The Bucs are trash” stance. They just aren’t, but the Saints might be. New Orleans still has talent but Dennis Allen just can’t maximize it for whatever reason. Tampa Bay beat New Orleans earlier in the season and I expect them to move the ball with relative ease against this New Orleans defense.

Minnesota has been through four quarterbacks this year and a major injury to Justin Jefferson. Now they are without T.J. Hockenson for the rest of the season, and stud rookie Jordan Addison is out for at least another week. The fact that the Vikings are still in the playoff hunt is a testament to their ability to withstand the storm and keep pushing. Both Minnesota and Green Bay are banged up heading into this one, but the Vikings have proven to be the more capable team of adjusting game plans and getting guys to step up in new roles. Plus, Jaire Alexander’s bizarre suspension means one less starting-caliber cornerback to throw at Justin Jefferson.

Tier 3: Shakin’ Off The Haters (Season Record: 31-24-3)

Cowboys -6 over Lions

Dolphins +3.5 over Ravens

Rams -4.5 over Giants

Bengals +7 over Chiefs

Just like “Macho Man” Randy Savage at Wrestlemania III when Jack Tunney and Ricky Steamboat stole the Inctercontinental Championship from him, these teams have been…maligned. Dallas and Miami can’t beat good teams. Los Angeles was supposed to be both the worst team in their own stadium and a potential tanking team early in the year. Cincinnati’s season was over when Joe Burrow went down for the year. Nevertheless, these teams have been able to shake off the haters (pardon the Taylor Swift lyric reference) and keep playing football. The Cowboys and Dolphins have locked up their playoff spots, with the Rams and Bengals still being in the hunt.

Detroit has been an enigma all season, and I’ve been on the wrong side of guessing when they are going to look like “The Greatest Show on Turf” and when they’ll look like a turnover prone mess with no defense. Regardless, they don’t have a defense and Dallas does. Plus, the game is in Dallas. Those two things make all the difference.

I might be “hating” on Baltimore here, but I also think the money is going to be raining down on the Ravens’ spread this week. Miami feels like the value play and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Ravens had a little bit of a letdown after such a huge win on Christmas night. Baltimore’s defense is excellent, but I think Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle can find space to work against this secondary.

It looks like Tommy Devito is back to shining shoes. It was a fun run, but the Giants are going back to Tyrod Taylor this week. That makes me a little nervous to go against New York, but Matt Stafford is quietly having a good season and Puka Nacua has been a revelation, as has Kyren Williams. I think the Rams attack the Giants defense with a balanced offense and the Giants will struggle to play from behind.

Why are we still giving Kansas City this many points against anyone? The Chiefs are still good, but they aren’t a juggernaut. The offense is borderline untrustworthy at this point. Ja’Marr Chase still seems questionable to play. Regardless of Chases’s availability, Cincinnati will keep this game close.

Tier 4: Resilience (Season Record: 22-30-3)

Titans +4.5 over Texans

Colts -3.5 over Raiders

Cardinals +10.5 over Eagles

Steelers +3.5 over Seahawks

All four of these teams have spent significant parts of the year without their intended starting quarterback. As a result, they have all been bad, except for the Colts who are just inconsistent. However, they keep playing and there’s some reason (hopefully other than stupidity) that I believe they will cover this week.

Tennessee thought they had a good thing going coming into the season. Will Levis could be the quarterback of the future and learn under Ryan Tannehill, while the team would continue to be an AFC South favorite. Then, we learned that Tannehill has no interest in being a mentor and then he got hurt, thrust Levis into the starting role sooner rather than later. Tennessee’s offense has mostly struggled regardless of who’s played quarterback and I’m reticent to back them, but Houston hasn’t been very good since Tank Dell went down for the year. This line suggests that C.J. Stroud will play this week, but even so putting this in the Vegas zone feels like asking for a Tennessee cover.

The half-point in this Colts-Raiders game bothers me but expect a Minshew rebound this week with Michael Pittman hopefully returning to the lineup. Las Vegas has improved significantly since excising the Josh McDaniels’ stench from the locker room, but we’ve also seen them get shut out by the Vikings in that time.

This is more of a bet against Philadelphia covering a spread this big with a banged-up Jalen Hurts and a defense that might not be as good as the sum of its parts. Kyler Murray can still run around and make a few plays, plus covering the spread has no impact on draft position. The Eagles win comfortably but don’t cover.

Pittsburgh and Seattle have been roller coasters all year. The Steelers have mostly been a down-going roller coaster but then they have a game like last week. The defense is still good and I think they can cause headaches for a Seattle offense that looked pretty average with Geno Smith back under center last week.

Tier 5: Willingness To Change (Season Record: 26-23-1)

Jets +7.5 over Browns

Panthers +6.5 over Jaguars

Broncos -3.5 over Chargers

You can make all the New Year’s resolutions you want to, but ultimately if you’re unwilling to make changes then you won’t make any improvements. The Broncos, Jets and Panthers fanbases know that only too well. Carolina’s issue may have been too much change recently and they’ve already moved on from Frank Reich after less than a season in charge. Unfortunately, they don’t have much additional room for upgrades without their first-round pick. Both the Jets and Broncos tried to make major change recently by signing a veteran, Super Bowl-winning quarterback. Neither of those quarterbacks will be starting this week. Willingness to change is know guarantee of success, but you know the old saying about what to do when you don’t succeed the first time…

I might look foolish tonight, as I did going against Cleveland last week, when the Browns are up by four scores in the fourth quarter, but I just can’t trust Joe Flacco with a spread this big still.

Trevor Lawrence is a major question mark to play this week and the Panthers have no incentive to try to lose. Carolina has actually been fairly competitive since Frank Reich’s firing and I could see it happening again this week.

Jarett Stidham vs. Easton Stick isn’t the quarterback matchup we needed, but it is the one we deserve. Los Angeles had their cat bounce game last week, but I can’t see it happening two weeks in a row. Denver has kind of crashed back to reality, but maybe letting Stidham play out the stretch will spur the Broncos (pun intended) to a strong finish.

Last Week: 8-8

Season Record: 115-115-10

Credit Cover Image to AFP Photo/Monirul Bhuiyan