The picks have hit the skids, but don’t worry it’s the season of twinkling lights and merrymaking. There’s no time like the present for getting things back on track.

Tier 1: The Griswold’s Exterior Illumination (Season Record: 18-14-2)

Jaguars +1.5 over Bucs

Seahawks -2.5 over Titans

If, like Clark Griswold, your father taught you everything he knew about exterior illumination, then your house might short circuit a whole block of Chicago too. Hopefully, this week’s best bets won’t short circuit like they did last week.

Jacksonville is coming off a deflating Sunday night loss to the Ravens. In the last few weeks, we’ve also seen a Trevor Lawrence injury and a blowout home loss to the 49ers. However, Trevor Lawrence has been able to suit up despite the injury and everyone gets blown out by the 49ers. Tampa Bay got their big upset win last week against the Packers, but this isn’t a good team. Defaulting to the “which coach-quarterback combo do you want more” simplification, I’ll take Doug Pederson and Trevor Lawrence over Todd Bowles and Baker Mayfield. The rest of Jacksonville’s roster, other than the wide receivers, is better too.

What a win for Seattle on Monday night! Drew Lock threw an absolute dime to Jaxon Smith-Njigba to cap a great comeback over the suddenly struggling Eagles. The funniest part of the night was, immediately following the game-clinching touchdown, Drew Lock “putting that shit on” and immediately being scared out of his jock by D.K. Metcalf. Classic. Tennessee had every chance to beat a depleted Texans team and could even do it in the beautiful throwback Oilers unis, but couldn’t complete the drill. Seattle’s better than the current iteration of Houston. I worry a little about the “West Coast team traveling East” phenomenon, but Seattle is playing far better right now. Kenneth Walker III makes this offense two-dimensional again. That has made all the difference for this Seattle team, even with the Geno Smith injury.

Tier 2: Icicles On The House (Season Record: 16-22-1)

Rams -4.5 over Saints

Colts +1.5 over Falcons

As a Southerner, it always took me to a far colder place when, during the December months, I would drive past the houses with the lights like icicles on the houses. It always made me daydream of being in the world of “A Christmas Story” with Ralphie, Randy and Scut Farkus.

If you’ve read this column even semi-regularly, you know of my aversion to betting Thursday night games. This just seems too good to pass up. The Rams are playing good football. The Saints did blow out the upstart Giants last week, but on the whole New Orleans play can generously be described as uneven. The Rams offense is as healthy as its been and is clicking better than anyone, myself included, could have guessed.

How many games has Indianapolis been involved in this year that had a 1.5-point spread? It feels like it’s been the last ten weeks, and I feel like I take the Indy side in almost all of them. The Colts are playing well, and Atlanta is…not. I know the game is in Atlanta, but the Colts are a better team, and it seems likely that they will be able to add Jonathan Taylor to the backfield. Atlanta is like a teenager driving a McLaren. They have all the pieces to be a good football team, it just doesn’t seem like they know how to use them.

Tier 3: When The Lights Go Down In The…Superdome? (Season Record: 31-20-3)

Cowboys +1.5 over Dolphins

Packers -4.5 over Panthers

Broncos -6.5 over Patriots

49ers -5.5 over Ravens

How fitting that on the week we do a light-themed tier naming we get a rematch of the most famous light-related incident in Super Bowl history? For those who don’t remember, the Ravens and the 49ers met in Super Bowl XLVII in New Orleans. The storylines heading into the game were Harbaugh vs. Harbaugh and the backup quarterback sensation du jour: Colin Kaepernick. The story coming out of the game was how a power outage in the third quarter “sparked” (pun totally intended) a near 49ers comeback. I doubt we see a power outage this time around, and I doubt we see San Francisco battling from behind. Baltimore +5.5 is probably going to be the “sharps play”, but I’m sorry I just won’t go against the 49ers right now. This is the “football guy’s play.”

Dallas yet again fell flat in a big game on Sunday afternoon. This still seems to be the monkey that this franchise can’t get off its back, much to the derisive joy of their many haters, a group of which I proudly consider myself a member. They do have to go on the road against another good team, and if Tyreek Hill returns healthy then this pick could look foolish, but I just see a game where the Cowboys pass rush gives Tua problems if he can’t get the ball out quickly against an opportunistic Dallas secondary. On the other side of the ball, Miami’s pass rush could equally give Dak problems, but I don’t think Miami’s secondary matches up as well against the Dallas receivers, including Tony Pollard out of the backfield. I think Dallas schemes up short, quick passes and runs to mitigate the Dolphins’ pass rush.

Denver, after I finally got on board with their resurrection arc, laid a big ol’ egg on Saturday night against a Detroit team that seemed to be trending the opposite direction. Was that a blip against a talented team on the road or a sign that the coach had become a pumpkin? It’s hard to say and it probably won’t be answered this week against a Patriots team that might be stealth tanking.

Green Bay’s yet another team on the list of teams Sam decided to believe in again just at the wrong moment last week. Carolina got their “dead cat bounce” win (a.k.a. the win you get the week following you finally deciding to fire your coach) last week, but Frank Reich wasn’t a big enough problem to be worth two “dead cat bounce” wins. He’s not Josh McDaniels.

Tier 4: The Wreath On The Door (Season Record: 19-29-3)

Bears -4.5 over Cardinals

Steelers +1.5 over Bengals

Chiefs -10 over Raiders

Lions -3 over Vikings

A simple wreath on the door is a classy, simple, perfectly acceptable Christmas decoration. It’s not exactly “lit” though, as the kids would say.

Chicago screwed the pooch last week, but they are still a much-improved team over the course of the season, and Justin Fields has made plenty of strides. His stats from last week are misleading too thanks to throwing interceptions on both end-of-half Hail Marys, one of which very easily could have been a game-winning touchdown. Arizona has also played better on offense since Kyler Murray’s return, but this is still a bad team and bad defense. Chicago’s defense has come one, thanks in no small part to trade deadline addition Montez Sweat.

Will Kenny Pickett be back this week? It still seems unlikely and betting on Mitch Trubisky feels like setting money on fire, but I still believe in Pittsburgh’s defense. Admittedly, this is kind of more a bet that Kenny Pickett can go and we’re getting in before it becomes official and the line moves. Maybe just stay away.

What a difference a few months make when the Chiefs go from Super Bowl champions to a shaky favorite bet. Kansas City went down by two scores to Las Vegas a few weeks ago only to storm back and cover a big spread anyway. I don’t expect much different at home. The Raiders exploded for 63 points last Thursday, but that was aided by a Chargers team full of Brucies for a night.

The Lions seem intent to do the exact opposite of everything I expect them to do. Just when I had bought in, the Lions decide to turn their offense into a turnover prone mess. When I sell my stock, they turn back into a facsimile of “The Greatest Show on Turf”. They may be on the road this week, but I like this team in a dome setting. I’m not sure if Nick Mullens can make a struggling defense pay consistently enough to keep up if the Lions offense brings its typical potency.

Tier 5: Scrooge’s House aka “Bah Humbug!” (Season Record: 23-22-1)

Commanders +3 over Jets

Chargers +12.5 over Bills

Texans +2.5 over Browns

Giants +11.5 over Eagles

“Darkness is cheap, and Scrooge liked it.”

How many times can I recommend a Commanders bet only to have it thrown back in my face? Apparently one more. Sam Howell has officially lost his nickname. The Jets, though, are waiting on pins and needles to see if Zack Wilson will clear concussion protocol, and yet find themselves a three-point favorite. I know Washington is awful, but that sentence was so mind-numbing to write that I can’t in good conscious back the Jets.

By all conceivable accounts, the Bills should manhandle the Chargers. Buffalo is coming off a huge home win over the Cowboys and seem like they are pushing for AFC seeding at the end of the year. They are also slowly, but surely, getting healthier. Los Angeles is neither getting healthier not making any kind of a push towards anything but a better draft pick. Buffalo still must travel across several time zones on a short week, and we’re in “dead cat bounce” territory and a long week for Los Angeles. Cue the inexplicable cover.

It seems unlikely that C.J. Stroud to play, so it may seem like a prime opportunity to bet on Cleveland, but we saw the Texans defense clamp down one bad offense last week. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them do it again this week and at least keep them in the game.

Will Tommy Cutlets rebound after a fall from grace last week? The Giants had been playing a lot better until last week’s letdown. Spitshine Tommy did take a big shot in that game though and even if he wasn’t concussed that can affect play. I see a bounceback for the Italian Pony this week, at least enough to cover a spread that’s too big for an Eagles team whose arrow is clearly pointing down. Side note: three different Tommy DeVito nicknames in one paragraph! If I’m not helping you’re gambling account, at least you’re chuckling.

Last Week: 6-8-2

Season Record: 107-107-10