We’ve officially hit that point in the season. I’ve alluded to it a few times this season, but we’ve hit critical mass. There’s too much information, too much film and too much data. What do we make of any of this? We’ve seen the Broncos go from being a team that gives up 70 points in a game to a team that resembles an NFL football team. We’ve seen the Jets go from Aaron Rodgers to Terrible Zack Wilson to Decent Zack Wilson to Terrible Zack Wilson to Worse Tim Boyle to…Good Zack Wilson? The Packers, and more specifically Jordan Love, have gone from decent to top-five pick to playoff-caliber and dipped back to top-five pick last Monday night. All this to say, even NFL teams, full of *mostly* professional-caliber athletes, are dynamic constructs and if you aren’t prepared to adjust over the course of the season then Vegas (the casinos not the Raiders) will take you for the sucker you are.

Tier 1: The Rebound Teams (Season Record: 18-11-2)

Giants +6 over Saints

Packers -3.5 over Bucs

Broncos +4 over Lions

Charles Barkley had an elegant and simple theory. “Go get the damn ball!” Denver’s defense must have taken that to heart because after starting 1-5 with a defense that got torched by pretty much everybody, including the Dolphins hanging the embarrassing 70-spot, they have made a drastic turnaround over the past seven games. They’ve mostly done this by getting the damn ball. The Broncos have forced 18 turnovers in the last seven games. Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions, and specifically Jared Goff, have become uncharacteristically turnover prone. These trends are unlikely to continue, but with four extra points to play with, I’ll ride them for another week.

Tommy “Cutlets” has officially had his coming out party, and if I write anything too critical his agent will have me “whacked”, not that I would after that performance. I’ve said all year that I don’t think this Saints team is very good, and there hasn’t been much to dissuade me from that notion. For those of you wondering, no blowing out Carolina does not inspire confidence.

Green Bay got a little dose of their own medicine Monday night. After shocking the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football in Week 13, the Packers suffered their own shocking loss on the road to the Giants on Monday. Jordan Love had made a lot of progress this season before having a setback game last week. For now, I’m choosing to accept this as an outlier. Green Bay will get back on track against a bad Tampa Bay team this week.

Tier 2: To Be The Man, You’ve Got To Beat The Man (Season Record: 13-21-1)

49ers -12.5 over Cardinals

Cowboys +1.5 over Bills

Ravens -3 over Jaguars

Seahawks +3.5 over Eagles

Wooo!!!! San Francisco, Dallas, Baltimore and Philadelphia have been the limousine ridin’, kiss stealin’, wheelin’ and dealin’ sons of guns this year. One of those four will win this year’s Super Bowl. (Sorry Kansas City you haven’t been the same caliber this year even if you are the defending champions.) San Francisco is rolling teams right now, and this week shouldn’t be any different against a frisky, but bad Cardinals team. The only thing that can slow down the 49ers at this point is injuries. Dallas had earned the reputation as the team that beats up bad teams but falls flat against the good teams. They shrugged that off with a big win over the rival Eagles at home. Can they do it again on the road, outdoors, and in bad weather? Vegas says no. I say yes. I just trust the Cowboys more than the Bills. Per DVOA, Baltimore is the best team in football. The eye test doesn’t exactly agree, but three points is a small line against a team with a banged-up quarterback. The Ravens defense will put the clamps down on the Jags.

The last one deserves its own paragraph. Philadelphia earned my trust and then shattered it over the last two weeks. They are back in “earn it” mode. Monday night in Seattle against a three-and-a-half point home dog? Seattle has played a little better the last few weeks, even with Drew Lock at quarterback. Kenneth Walker III is the key cog in this offense. He opens things up for D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. I’m not sure if Seattle wins this game, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it comes down to a field goal.

Tier 3: Down But Not Out (Season Record: 30-19-2)

Raiders -2.5 over Chargers

Bengals -3 over Vikings

Commanders +6.5 over Rams

Las Vegas has been a case study in what misery can do to performance. Ever since Josh McDaniels was fired, two things have become evident. First, everyone hated working with him and for him. Second, the Raiders were better than what they looked under McDaniels. I can’t go so far as to say the Raiders are a good team, they just got shut out by the Vikings, but they can beat a Justin Herbert-less Chargers team that needs no help to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Everyone, myself included, outside of the Paycor Stadium home team locker room wrote the Bengals off after Joe Burrow’s season-ending injury. Jake Browning came in and things were rocky at first, but Browning showed out on Sunday and has Cincinnati hopeful of a late season playoff push. He has the weapons around him, not unlike Minnesota. The difference is we have a few weeks of seeing Jake Browning not be the anchor that drags down the talent around him. We don’t have that for Nick Mullens.

Washington’s not a good football team and this bet may be foolish, but I still love Sam “Back Door Man” Howell with a wide-open back door cover opportunity. The Rams have exceeded all expectations this year thanks to a healthy Matt Stafford and the breakout of Puka Nacua, but I still have trouble trusting them with a spread this big. When Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua combine for 400 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns Sunday, I’ll be eating these words.

Tier 4: Would You Rather? (Season Record: 18-27-2)

Colts -1.5 over Steelers

Falcons -3 over Panthers

Bears +3 over Browns

Patriots +8.5 over Chiefs

Honestly, we should all probably just stay away from these games. But just for fun let’s play everyon’s favorite late-night sleepover game, “Would you rather?”

Would you rather bet: a Colts team that has questionable talent levels and uneven quarterback play or a Steelers team with a stellar defense, but Mitch Trubisky at quarterback? Give me anything over Trubisky at this point. Jonathan Taylor also could return to the mix this week.

Would you rather bet: a Falcons team that can’t decide on a quarterback or when to throw a challenge flag or when to punt or a Panthers team that we know is one of the worst rosters in professional sports? I trust Carolina to be bad more than I trust Atlanta’s ability to screw things up, at least it’s not the Chargers.

Would you rather bet: a Bears team that has made strides on both sides of the ball in recent weeks and a rejuvenated Justin Fields or an elite Cleveland Browns defense with old Joe Flacco at quarterback? I might regret this, but Chicago is actually playing professional-level football for a change and they are a discount price right now.

Would you rather bet: a team that can’t line up onsides in the 4^th quarter of a Week 14 game or a team that can do that but can’t do pretty much anything else a football team is required to do to be successful? New England did look somewhat rejuvenated with Bailey Zappe at the helm last week, and have a few extra days to prepare, having played on Thursday. The evidence just says we shouldn’t be laying this many points with Kansas City right now.

Tier 5: Injury Questions (Season Record: 22-21-1)

Titans -2.5 over Texans

Dolphins -8.5 over Jets

As of this writing, I have no idea if C.J. Stroud or Tyreek Hill will play or how limited they may be in their respective games. As you can probably infer, I’m assuming Stroud will likely not play and Hill will in some capacity. Houston has been the surprise team of the season so far, but the injury bug is starting to bite and this roster is not deep. Without Stroud, Tennessee seems like the right play over taking Davis Mills or Case Keenum on the road. Miami wrecked the Jets on Black Friday with the most hilarious Hail Mary ever. Tim Boyle has since relinquished the starting quarterback job and it’s back to Zack Wilson. The game is in Miami and if Tyreek Hill can even be a threatening decoy, then Miami wins by two scores.

Last Week: 5-9-1

Season Record: 101-99-8

Cover Photo Courtesy of Stephen Lew/USA TODAY Sports