Thanksgiving has come and gone, but unfortunately the residual meat sweats and food coma have not. Several teams get a bye this week to rest and digest their turkey, and while we would love to do the same there are still some games that deserve our attention.

Tier 1: The Cat Nap (Season Record: 16-9-2)

Cowboys -8.5 over Seahawks

Lions -4.5 over Saints

I have to confess a part of my picks process for a minute. Typically, there will be a cursory glance through the games where I start to get an idea of a) how I feel about the week as a whole and b) where to start sorting games. All this to say, one game leapt off the page as an obvious tier one game this week. Oddly, it was the Thursday night game, which is usually a big no-no. There are a few reasons why the Cowboys should get a big bet this week though. First, it’s a home game against a team with an injured quarterback that I’m not sure is very good. Second, even though Thursday is normally a short week, it’s not this week for the Cowboys (or for the Seahawks for that matter who also played on Thanksgiving day). All that to say, bet the ‘Boys this week and then lick your chops for fading them in the playoffs.

I know, I know. The Lions have shanked us two weeks in a row now. Maybe I’m just a glutton for punishment. Or maybe, just maybe, Detroit is still a good team that’s just coming off a few bad weeks and caught a heating up Packers team at the wrong time. If the latter is true, and I think it is, we’re getting them at a discount this week. The Saints are a bad football team and with Michael Thomas out and Chris Olave in concussion protocol they may be bereft of their deep threats. Alvin Kamara is still a beast and Taysom Hill is a versatile weapon, but the deep threat just isn’t there. I know I said this last week, but I don’t think Jared Goff will continue to be this turnover prone.

Tier 2: The Power Nap (Season Record: 12-17-1)

Colts -1.5 over Titans

Eagles +2.5 over 49ers

Why has my second tier stunk so bad this year? This might need some offseason analysis. Part of the reason might be betting against the 49ers here. Admittedly, I really don’t love this, but I love the idea of getting this Eagles team as a home ‘dog. I think these are the best two teams in football and this should be a pick ‘em.

Jonathan Taylor is doubtful to play this week after having thumb surgery, but the Colts are still better than this Titans team.

Tier 3: A Full Night’s Sleep (Season Record: 25-17-1)

Cardinals +5.5 over Steelers

Texans -3.5 over Broncos

Rams -3.5 over Browns

Packers +6 over Chiefs

Jaguars -8.5 over Bengals

Here are a menagerie teams that I have various discomfort putting significant money on this week for different reasons.

Arizona isn’t a good team, but they have had some frisk to them since Kyler Murray returned to the lineup. I’m not sure if he will be able to run around and sling the ball down the field well in the Pittsburgh cold, but the Steelers don’t exactly blow people out. I like the Cardinals sitting in the Vegas zone here.

Houston has decided to shank me ever since I decided they deserved my money and my confidence. Nevertheless, C.J. Stroud is having a strong rookie season and it feels like they can put together a big drive anytime they need it. The defense was a little bit of a letdown last week against a Jacksonville team they should have put up a better showing against, but the Broncos are a decent team to get back on track against. Denver has played much better, and I nearly bet them, but they are still inconsistent offensively and the defense doesn’t get to play a high school offense this week.

Speaking of which, can we just bet against Cleveland the rest of the season? The Browns season is toast with Deshaun Watson being out for the year. The defense is still a problem for any NFL offense, but it has to be demoralizing knowing your offense won’t give you any help.

I like to think one of my strengths is admitting when I was wrong. I’m here to say I wrote the Packers off too soon. Jayden Reed, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs are actually becoming a threatening receiver trio. Jordan Love has made progress. A.J. Dillon has held down the backfield with Aaron Jones out, but Jones should return this week. I’m less confident in the Packers defense slowing down the Chiefs offense, but the frozen tundra at Lambeau on Sunday night may help with that. Kansas City will still try to channel the spirit of Hank Stram and matriculate that ball down the field, and they probably will with Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce and Isiah Pacheco (who’s quietly having a good year), but this Green Bay team can keep things close.

Cincinnati is another team that I think is toast. They should just pack it in because it’s been the season from hell and get ready for 2024. They very well may do just that. Meanwhile, Jacksonville got a huge AFC South win last week and will look to build on that for a second straight division crown.

Tier 4: Benadryl Sleep (Season Record: 16-22-1)

Patriots +6 over Chargers

Falcons -3 over Jets

Commanders +9.5 over Dolphins

Panthers +5.5 over Bucs

Not gonna lie, I hate all of these games. Just stay away. Should I really be betting on New England who has made it their sole mission to go 0-17 against the spread this year? (I know they haven’t done that but it sure feels like it). On the flip side, the Chargers cannot be trusted with a Vegas zone spread. They just find too many ways to blow these covers. They even blew their +3.5 cover giving up an insurance touchdown to Baltimore last week.

The Jets kind of feel like a straight bet against at this point, but I still don’t love this Falcons team. I love them less in an outdoor game. I love them even less in an outdoor game above the Mason-Dixon. The Jets defense could scratch up a few scores here and ruin this bet, but if pressed to make a pick then I have to go with the team with a quasi-competent quarterback at this point. Don’t bet on this game…unless it’s the under.

Here’s the thing about Washington: they aren’t afraid to throw the ball a million times a game. Here’s the thing about Miami: you can throw on their defense. I think the Dolphins win this game. I even think they win it reasonably comfortably, but I think the Commanders willingness and ability to throw makes this a prime backdoor cover candidate. In fact, after this game, we might have a new nickname for Sam “Backdoor Man” Howell. Oops maybe we already do.

Why would anyone bet on Carolina? (Hint: they wouldn’t). Counterpoint: why would anyone lay 5.5 points on Tampa Bay? (Hint: they also would not). This game is not worth watching, and it’s also not worth wasting your money on.

Tier 5: Rip Van Winkle Slumber (Season Record: 19-21-1)

BYE Week

Rip Van Winkle famously went to sleep one day and woke up years later with an unkempt, large beard but otherwise none the worse for wear. Tier 5 is taking the week off along with the Bills, Giants, Vikings, Raiders, Bears, and Ravens.

Last Week: 8-7-1

Season Record: 88-86-6