“Trust but verify.” It’s an expression we use all the time in the medical world. Unfortunately, there is no verification process for the NFL. One week the hot team looks like the 1985 Bears, the next week they look like most of the iterations of the Bears since. I’ve always thought of myself as a trusting person, but these teams are trying my faith. Edgar Allan Poe claimed he had great faith in fools, or self-confidence as his friends called it. Hopefully my newfound skepticism is a mark of wisdom, but I’m skeptical of that too.

Tier 1: To All The Dogs I’ve Loved Before, aka Daisy, Cooper and Hagler (Season Record: 12-8-1)

Texans -4.5 over Cardinals

49ers -11.5 over Bucs

Lions -8.5 over Bears

Dogs are the best. Not only do they understand unconditional love, but they also have a unique aptitude for unconditional trust. Daisy was my first dog. She was a beautiful golden retriever mutt that I had from 5^th grade through my second year of medical school. She trusted my brother and I despite us being hoodlum teenagers. My current dogs, Cooper (another golden retriever) and Hagler (a boxer), are also trusting to a fault. I tell them “I’ll be back soon” even though I know I will be at work for sometimes 24+ hours, and yet they are always right there at the door waiting no matter when I return. Dogs are the best.

What a wild world we live in where the Houston Texans and the Detroit Lions are two of the most trustworthy teams in football, and yet here we are. The Lions have done it by building a great infrastructure to put a decent quarterback in his best possible situation. The offensive line is stellar and they have fast, reliable skill players. Meanwhile, Houston looks like they’ve hit a home run with C.J. Stroud and his go-to receiver Tank Dell. These two are lighting people up and Houston is an AFC South threat. Arizona and Chicago are two of the worst teams in the league, and despite having Kyler Murray and Justin Fields back, respectively, I feel no hesitation betting against either of them. San Francisco came out after the bye week and showed that they are ready to continue wreaking havoc. I thought having to travel cross-country against a heating up Jaguars team would be a challenge. I was wrong again.

Tier 2: Boomers On Facebook (Season Record: 11-15-1)

Eagles +2.5 over Chiefs

If you still have a Facebook, then you know exactly what I’m talking about. We all have that person in our lives, most of whom were born before Ronald Reagan took office, who seems you a random new friend request or an invite to buy name brand sunglasses at a discount every other week only to let you know they were hacked a few days later. Tip for all of you on Facebook: never click the link! (Unless of course it’s the link to this column because those are safe).

Flashback to the end of last year: I bet on the Eagles to win the Super Bowl and every prop bet I recommended stemmed from that supposition. Philadelphia lost and so did all my prop bets. But just like George W. Bush, you cain’t fool me again! That’s because Philadelphia is just better than Kansas City right now. I do worry slightly about it being a Monday night and Taylor Swift potentially being in attendance, but we aren’t listening to noise this week. We are deciding who we trust and who we don’t. Philadelphia does play to its level of competition, which would scare me off against an inferior team, but I love them as an underdog. They have some nasty in them and I just think they are better than this version of the Chiefs.

Tier 3: Teenage Boys (Season Record: 21-15-1)

Bengals +3.5 over Ravens

Dolphins -12.5 over Raiders

Cowboys -10.5 over Panthers

Teenage boys are idiots. I say this as someone who was one not that long ago, and basically still has most of the characteristics of one. We walk around smacking each other in the genitals when we catch someone off guard (a.k.a. the “cup check) or going for the old “tabletop” trick. We roll each other’s houses and Saran wrap cars. These pranks are all juvenile and they work because teenage boys are still a little naïve and trusting, but that tomfoolery does beat a little bit of naivete out of someone.

Cincinnati and Baltimore both shanked the hell out of me last week in different ways. Baltimore blew what should have been an easy cover over an awful Browns offense that gifted them a defensive touchdown on the first play of the game. Cincinnati just made mistake after mistake on offense and, despite a late rally, couldn’t quite overcome the sloppy play. Now they play each other on Thursday night in Baltimore. Last week, I felt like Baltimore is a team you could trust at home, but now I just trust that this game will probably be nutty and close being a division rivalry on a Thursday night.

It would be a lie to say I’m not kind of digging the “Raiders just fired all of their problems” storyline, but they haven’t played a decent team since the firing. Miami is coming off a bye and still has a sour taste after the Frankfurt loss to Kansas City. I think they look to score early and often here. Likewise, Dallas is still recovering from the tough Sunday night loss to Philly a few weeks ago and I don’t think Carolina can stay within double digits of them.

Tier 4: FTX Investors (Season Record: 15-16-1)

Chargers -3 over Packers

Jets +7 over Bills

Seahawks -1 over Rams

In a few years, Sam Bankman-Fried will either be immortalized as the subject of an Adam McKay movie or a guy old people talk about in conversations that start, “You remember that Stan Balkman-Friend guy?” with no in-between. People who bet the house on FTX probably won’t forget him anytime soon though, and they probably are high on the “trust issues” scale too.

Do I trust the Los Angeles Chargers? I do not. Do I think they are better than the Packers and playing better in the last few weeks? Sure. Jordan Love did put together a few decent drives against the Steelers last week, but there’s not consistency there. The only concern I have betting the Chargers here is this game being outdoors in Lambeau where it’s supposed to be cold (but not freezing) and rainy.

Buffalo is quickly becoming the team I trust the least in the NFL. Josh Allen continues to make just baffling decision after baffling decision. Also, I think Sean McDermott is a good football coach but is it time to consider this team might have peaked under his leadership? The fact they are getting a full touchdown here is a head scratcher. New York has its own problems, but the defense is decent and I think they can run the ball on this depleted Buffalo defense.

The Los Angeles Rams are another bad team, and Seattle might be the good-bad team (full credit to Bill Simmons). If this line were any higher the Rams would be tantalizing, but it’s essentially a pick ‘em and I trust Seattle’s talent slightly more.

Tier 5: Richard Nixon (Season Record: 15-17-1)

Jaguars -7 over Titans

Steelers +1.5 over Browns

Commanders -9.5 over Giants

Vikings +2.5 over Broncos

Imagine being so paranoid that you ruin one of the most lopsided presidential election victories in United States history because you just had to spy on your opponent’s campaign. Also, imagine doing that spy job so poorly that you got busted by Forrest Gump and inadvertently created the suffix that gets obligatorily added to every scandal of the last fifty years. Richard Nixon is a guy who approached Roman emperor levels of paranoia, with the main difference being that most Roman emperors actually did have someone out to get them.

It’s fitting that in a week about trust issues, the lowest tier gets the most representation. There’s just a lot to not like about these games. For example, I would feel a lot better about Jacksonville if I hadn’t just watched them get emasculated by the 49ers. However, there’s a big difference between Tennessee and San Fran. I think the Jaguars win and get back on track. I even think it’s more likely than not that they push or cover. Last week just shook my faith a little.

To be honest, I don’t trust Pittsburgh at all. In fact, betting on the Steelers is probably going to cause me to need blood pressure medication if I continue to do it. They seem to know what the spread is and just how to dance around it every single week. That being said, Cleveland’s offense is completely inept and now Deshaun Watson is done for the year. I trust Mike Tomlin and Kenny Pickett more than Kevin Stefanski and P.J. Walker. Cleveland’s defense is good enough to potentially mitigate that, which is why I have so little confidence, but I’m not sure the Browns can score in this game unless the defense does that for them too.

Washington laying nine-and-a-half points is rich, but the Giants are the worst team in football right now. Sam Howell has also been one of the pleasantest surprises of the season so far. This Commanders team may have traded away its two best defenders at the deadline, but they play hard. This might be a tease option for this week if that’s the kind of thing that whets your appetite.

Sam Howell has been one of the pleasantest surprises, but Josh Dobbs has been the best surprise of the season so far. After the Cardinals alleged promised not to trade or cut him earlier this season, they ended up trading him to the Vikings anyway after Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles. Josh Dobbs then entered his first game with the team after Jaren Hall got concussed in the first quarter of the Falcons game and led them to a comeback win. Last week, despite being an underdog, Dobbs led them to a dominant win over the Saints. Bagentmania may be over with Justin Fields return to the Bears QB1 role, but Dobbsmania is here to stay. Skol!

(Side note: Denver has quietly played much better over the last 3-4 weeks but there is nothing remotely fun about betting on that team or Russell Wilson and they could turn back into a lifeless rag of a team any given week.)

Last Week: 5-7-2

Season Record: 74-71-5

Cover Photo Courtesy of Dave Regitek/USA TODAY Sports