How many people remember Joey Knish? He’s a rounder. A grinder. As he would put it, he doesn’t play for the thrill of victory or chasing pipe dreams of the World Series of Poker. He plays to pay rent and alimony and to feed his kids. That’s not as flashy or memorable as Mike McDermott, who is chasing pipe dreams of Vegas, but there’s something noble about it. The truth is that most of the people who think they can be Mike McD end up being Worm, splitting town after their shot comes up short. Even Mike McDermott said, “You don’t ever hear about the guys who took their shot and missed.”

There’s something to be said for being Joey Knish, just grinding out right around .500 every week. Breaking even. These have been my thoughts over the last four weeks as I continue to grind out .500 weeks. Solid but not glamorous. Competent but not impressive. And then I think, at least I’m not Worm right? At least I’m not going on tilt. Then again, as Mike McD said, “If you’re too careful, your whole life can become a f***ing grind.” Time to take some shots.

Tier 1: Mike McD (Season Record: 11-8-1)

Colts -1.5 over Patriots

Mike McD is obviously the start of Rounders, and the character we’re all supposed to pull for. He’s an edgier Will Hunting. Really the only thing to say negatively about Mike McD is his poor choice in dating partners and friends. Jo was clearly a bad match for him, although she did seem to legitimately care about him. Worm is a more difficult one to understand. I know Worm kept Mike from getting expelled from high school, but Worm’s used that to manipulate Mike McD ever since. When does the good will for one good deed run out? Other than the loss to Teddy KGB at the beginning of the movie, virtually all of Mike’s problems stem from his friendship with Worm. Then again, if it isn’t for those problems Mike McD doesn’t get back in the game and make his way to Vegas. Maybe we all need a Worm?

I don’t love this week for gambling, and it’s telling that the game I like the most is a game being played in Frankfurt, Germany at 9:30 A.M. EST. This is a mark of how little I think of these Patriots. The Colts have bit me a few times this season, but they are better than New England, and I don’t think this Patriots defense can force Minshew to make mistakes. I also think Jonathan Taylor has a monster game.

Tier 2: Joey Knish (Season Record: 11-12)

Ravens -6 over Browns

Bengals -6.5 over Texans

Falcons -1.5 over Cardinals

Lions -3 over Chargers

We kind of already covered Joey Knish. Here’s the only other thing to say really: he’s a man who knows who he is and is comfortable with that. I can admire that in a man.

Baltimore is a different team at home. Cleveland is a roller coaster ride and their defense is scary to bet against, but I like Lamar at home. He’s also the perfect skillset to neutralize the Browns pass rush. Six points is a high line, but I still like Baltimore at home.

We all knew Cincinnati would turn it on at some point, and they look like the best team in football right now. If you’ve been reading, you know I have a soft spot for this Texans team, but blowing a push by not having a kicker and kneeling out an extra point, while being a totally appropriate and Knish move, put a sour taste in my mouth. Bengals cover at home.

Kyler Murray is probably going to start for Arizona this week. We think? That’s probably good, because last week’s Arizona team was not an NFL caliber team. I’m not sure what to expect from Arizona, so I think you have to go with Atlanta, even if I hate betting them as a road favorite.

Have the Chargers figured it out? They’ve pounded the Bears and Jets on consecutive weeks. On the one hand, it’s the Bears and Jets. On the other hand, you can’t blow close games if you don’t have them. Los Angeles won’t just blow the doors off Detroit though, and the Lions are rested coming off a bye.

Tier 3: Teddy KGB (Season Record: 19-13-1)

Cowboys -16.5 over Giants

Titans +1.5 over Bucs

Steelers -3 over Packers

Bills -7.5 over Broncos

Not usually one for fan theories, but I have one about Teddy KGB. What if the whole “he’s connected to the top of the Russian KGB” is a myth he perpetuated to increase his clout? My argument basically stems around two demonstrative facts. First, if he’s truly Russian then why is his Russian accent terrible? John Malkovich admitted to intentionally making the Russian accent terrible. If he’s so well-connected, he should have a more passable accent. Second, if your connected to the KGB, why would you let basically everyone in New York call you KGB? We’re less than ten years from the fall of the Berlin Wall when Rounders came out. It seems that someone that well-connected wouldn’t want that fact so publicly advertised. But someone who wanted people to think they’re well-connected? That’s the person who would embrace the moniker, “Teddy KGB”.

Sixteen-and-a-half points is a boatload of points, but the Giants are in free fall. Dallas will want a bounce back after a disappointing loss in Philly last weekend. I think Dallas will release a lot of last week’s frustrations this week.

What is Tennessee with Will Levis at quarterback? We’ve seen good play and bad play. I still don’t think the Bucs are good, even after dropping 37 on Houston last week. Tennessee is a physical team and I think they can manhandle Tampa Bay up front.

Despite the Packers taking the Rams to task last week, I still don’t think Green Bay is a good team. I’m not sure Pittsburgh is either. Betting on them is almost always stressful. I haven’t bet Pittsburgh one time this year where I wasn’t sweating it late in the game. But you know what they say, “scared money don’t make money”. Let’s get the Terrible Towels out.

I flat refuse to bet on the Broncos. Buffalo is banged up, but they still have Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. Those two will shred this porous Denver defense.

Tier 4: Worm (Season Record: 14-15)

Bears -3 over Panthers

Seahawks -6 over Commanders

Raiders +1 over Jets

We’ve kind of already discussed Worm, but let’s review. He’s one of the worst friends in the history of film. He took a fall for his friend one time as teenagers and then lorded that over his friend as his terrible decisions almost ruined his friend’s life too. Then he dips town and leaves his friend on the hook with an alleged Russian mobster for $15,000. Honestly, Worm is like Heath Ledger’s Joker, except for more sociopath than psychopath. He spends the whole movie trying to convince everyone that he doesn’t have any plans and he’s just made moves willy-nilly, but taking one fall early in life to manipulate a guy that you know is a) incredibly loyal and b) brilliant enough to pull you from the depths of trouble is next-level life planning.

Is it wise to bet the Bears on Thursday night? Probably not, but it’s better than betting the Panthers. It’s hard to imagine Carolina beating anyone on the road.

This Seahawks-Commanders game is probably the one I gave the most thought to this week. Washington did just throw in the towel for the year trading away Montez Sweat and Chase Young, but then beat New England on the road anyway. Without Sweat and Young, they won’t be able to force Geno Smith into mistakes and I think Kenneth Walker will have space to run on this team. Sam Howell is a gamer (kind of like Max Hall or John Skelton or any other pre-Kyler Murray Cardinals quarterback other than Derek Anderson), but I like Seattle by at least a touchdown at home.

Good God if I had known all the Josh McDaniels story before last week I never would have bet against the Raiders! I mean a head coach getting roasted by his players in a team meeting then looking “like a shell of himself” in the following practice? That’s like some “Any Given Sunday” shit. Las Vegas has excised its biggest problem. That was a disaster of a situation, and if the Josh McDaniels Raiders tenure doesn’t get a 90-minute documentary in the next five years I will be disappointed. The Jets could always show up and just shut down this Raiders offense, but we can’t go against the Vegas team in a whole column about Rounders can we?

Tier 5: Grama (Season Record: 14-16-1)

Vikings +2.5 over Saints

Jaguars +3 over 49ers

What is there to say about Grama really? The guy is a scumbag and a moron. Who wears a pajama onesie while counting their money in their makeshift whorehouse? This guy. He’s a classic cozy up to the powerful as a means to treat others with cruelty and contempt. He’s an adult version of Grover Dill.

It seemed like a slam dunk to bet against Minnesota one week after Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles. It seemed even surer when Jaren Hall left in the first quarter with a concussion. But Josh Dobbs just comes in and makes plays. When the Vikings had to have it, Dobbs took Minnesota right down and scored. I don’t think New Orleans is very good, and I think Dobbs can do the same.

I hate hate double hate betting against the 49ers, but Jacksonville was red hot going into their bye week. Now they are rested and get to stay at home on the East Coast. San Francisco is coming off the bye too, but they’ve also been banged up and must go cross country. This game will be close.

Last Week: 7-7

Season Record: 69-64-3

Cover Photo Courtesy of Miramax