Even though I called for last week to be another week of basically guesswork, I confess myself disappointed with the recent performance. Three weeks in a row of an essentially .500 picks record just doesn’t get the job done. Fortunately, this week we can invoke some of “Lady Luck”’s favorite tokens to help get us squarely back above .500.

Tier 1: Lucky Number Seven (Season Record: 10-7-1)

Giants +1.5 over Raiders

Bengals -1.5 over Bills

Everyone knows seven is a lucky number, and in Western culture at least, that belief stems from religious origins. As a man of faith, it seemed fitting that this lucky symbol should get the top billing.

What am I missing? Las Vegas just fired its coach and general manager. I briefly toyed with the concept of the addition by subtraction bounce back game, especially considering the game is in Vegas. However, the Giants are coming off one of the most inexplicable losses imaginable and will get Daniel Jones back. I think they find a way to beat a bad Raiders team with six days to figure out life with a new leader.

Cincinnati is heating up at the right time. The Bengals made the 49ers’ defense look pedestrian last Sunday, and even drove them to trade for Chase Young. Joe Burrow looks healthy and turned chicken excrement into chicken salad (metaphorically of course) on multiple occasions. Buffalo’s secondary is banged up and this Bengals offense should feast through the air on Sunday night. If you’re looking for special bets, I love the Stefon Diggs and Ja’Marr Chase 200+ combined receiving yards at +240. Also, I haven’t forgotten what happened in this game 11 months ago. Damar Hamlin continues to make an astounding recovery and let’s all pray we see nothing like that again in this game, or any other.

Tier 2: Penny On Heads (Season Record: 10-11)

Dolphins +1.5 over Chiefs

Ravens -5.5 over Seahawks

Finding a penny on heads is probably the most functional lucky symbol. I mean it is actual currency after all, but then again as a man of faith, I guess money is also the root of all evil. Balancing measures.

What is wrong with the Chiefs offense? They couldn’t score a touchdown against one of the worst teams in the league on Sunday en route to one of the most embarrassing losses of the season. I’m sure they will probably rebound with a statement win this week while I’m on the wrong side of things, but I can’t in good conscience think they beat this Miami team right now. I do think teams can have success through the air against this Miami defense, but I’m not sure Kansas City’s defense is good enough to stop the high-octane Dolphins’ attack either. Due to that, I like Miami, but I also like the Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce 250+ receiving yards at +550.

Baltimore also screwed me last weekend. Giving up on onside kick to allow the Cardinals to cover? Seriously? Meanwhile, the Seahawks pulled off a late comeback win against the Browns. It would probably be trendy to take Seattle here, and it is tempting with this line. But, location matters, much like the side the penny is on when you find it. Seattle going across country to Baltimore is a tough one. Lamar is quietly, for reasons I can’t finger, having a really good season and this Seahawks defense will give up some points.

Tier 3: Four-Leaf Clover (Season Record: 18-11-1)

Texans -3 over Bucs

Falcons -4.5 over Vikings

Colts -2.5 over Panthers

Why do the Irish get to have all the luck? Probably because they are relegated to the 7^th best kid-centric cereal for breakfast every morning. It seems like a fair tradeoff.

Houston had been my golden goose for the last few weeks. Vegas was still undervaluing how well C.J. Stroud was playing and the defense is surprisingly stingy. Then comes a road game against the winless Panthers and it all falls apart. Was it a fluke loss with a rookie quarterback or a sign that the carriage is becoming a pumpkin? I tend to lean towards the former and I think a home game against a bad Tampa Bay team is just what the fairy godmother ordered.

To quote Barack Obama: Let me be clear. I’m not betting on Atlanta. I am betting against a Kirk Cousin-less Minnesota that just traded for Josh Dobbs because they had no contingency plan. To be fair, Atlanta also benched Desmond Ridder in a loss to Tennessee on Sunday, but Taylor Heinicke is an upgrade over Ridder anyway. Josh Dobbs showed us once already that he can learn an offense on the fly, or is just an improv guy, but running with a new offense in a midseason trade seems like a tall ask.

I can’t figure the Colts out. Every time I think they’re cooked, they upset someone. Every time I think they are frisky; they lay an egg. I don’t love betting them as a road favorite, but it’s harder to imagine this Carolina team winning two straight games. Also, Jonathan Taylor looked healthy last week and he could have a field day.

Tier 4: Rabbits’ Foot (Season Record: 11-14)

Steelers -2.5 over Titans

Commanders +3.5 over Patriots

Eagles -3 over Cowboys

Jets +3 over Chargers

As far as lucky charms go, a dismembered animal part certainly doesn’t rank highly on my list of favorites. Surely the rabbit who lost his foot wasn’t so lucky right? I have always heard the reason rabbits’ feet are considered lucky is because you must be lucky to catch one and get its foot. No idea if that’s true or not, but it really makes me root a little harder for Bugs Bunny if it is.

I bet on the Bucs on Thursday night last week mostly because “Thursday night always gets weird”, and sure enough Tampa Bay went on a meaningless, penalty-extended drive to secure the backdoor cover. This week, Pittsburgh hosts the Titans. I gotta be honest. This is a “when all else fails bet Mike Tomlin at home” play. Kenny Pickett is going to play. Will Levis made some big throws in his first start, but I still believe in Mike Tomlin’s ability to scheme a headache of a game for a rookie quarterback. My belief in Matt Canada’s ability to not give Steelers’ fans a headache for the whole game is shakier.

Washington did just trade away two of its best defensive players, and I haven’t forgotten when they got pasted by Justin Fields a few weeks ago. Sam Howell is a gamer though, in another life he was a pre-Kyler Murray, pre-Kliff Kingsbury Cardinals quarterback, and I think he can keep the Commies in the game against a bad Pats team.

Philly vs. Dallas is the game of the week and I had a tough time deciding which way to go. Dallas looked strong last week, and I’ve lamented all season the Eagles seeming disinterest in optimizing their offensive output. Still, this is an extremely talented Philly team and I think they show up in a rivalry game with so much on the line. A.J. Brown’s 125+ receiving yard game streak is in serious jeopardy against a top-of-the-line Dallas secondary, but I think he’ll be fine without the streak if the Eagle pull out the dub.

Speaking of rabbits’ feet, what else did Robert Saleh have at his disposal last week? The Jets looked dead to rights in the Battle for New York last week, but a missed game-clinching field goal and a few big plays later and the Jets were headed to overtime to get a win. Zack Wilson still isn’t a good quarterback, and it’s worth noting that the Jets still only scored one touchdown in that game. However, the defense is legit and we all know the Chargers struggle on the East Coast. I may go to bed at halftime with the Chargers up 24-3 with the knowledge that the Jets could have 12 more quarters without getting to 24 points and feel like a fool, but I also know betting on Los Angeles on the East Coast is a terrible idea. To quote another former president: “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, you ain’t gone fool me again.”

Tier 5: Horseshoes (Season Record: 13-14-1)

Rams +3 over Packers

Bears +8.5 over Saints

Cardinals +7.5 over Browns

I’m sorry but any lucky charm that must be removed from your rectum as part of its “charm” can’t be all that lucky. Frankly, that sounds excruciating. Additionally, the Colts have twenty-two horseshoes on the field on every play (or at least every play they are lined up legally) and they’re only 3-5. The horseshoe is the most overrated lucky charm.

In the interest of transparency, I just kind of refuse to bet on the Packers. They seem like a team in freefall and I trust the Rams with whomever they trot out at quarterback over Green Bay right now. Similarly, I’m not laying eight-and-a-half points on the Saints against anyone. Bagentmania will be back this week. You’ll see.

Cleveland zigs every time I zag with them and zags whenever I zig with them. Prepare yourselves for Cleveland to win this game 45-10. In all honesty though, Kyler Murray won’t look that good in his first game back against a good Cleveland defense, but the Browns offense is kind of pitiful too. Maybe just bet the under instead of betting one of these teams?

Last Week: 7-8-1

Season Record: 62-57-3

Cover Photo Courtesy of Mark Konezny/USA TODAY Sports