My feelings for my own gauge of any football season go through ebbs and flows. Some weeks I feel like I’m getting a good pulse for which teams are good and which aren’t. Other weeks, I feel like that all gets flipped on its head. Somewhere around the midseason point (aka now) trying to keep track of all the minor injuries and subtle roster changes just confabulates things even more leading me to a Joey Bosa-sized shrug. That’s where we are after back-to-back mediocre weeks.

Tier 1: Confident Favorite Bets (Season Record: 7-6-1)

Texans -3 over Panthers

Dolphins -9.5 over Patriots

Lions -8.5 over Raiders

Vikings -1.5 over Packers

There are several favorites that I like this week, hopefully not to my own folly. Houston has quickly become a favorite team to bet for the year. It took Vegas too long to realize that this team is good. C.J. Stroud is a revelation at starting quarterback and, given Deshaun Watson’s poor play and injury issues in Cleveland, has softened the blow of how the Watson era in Houston ended (at least for Texans fans). Carolina, unfortunately, is not good and Bryce Young does not have the roster help around him to succeed. I expect a return to normalcy for Miami and New England this week, which basically means good football from the Dolphins and bad football from the Patriots. Especially without Judon, I don’t believe New England can make life difficult for Tua. Speaking of returns to normalcy, I finally jumped on the Detroit bandwagon last week only for them to get the brakes beat off of them. This Raiders team is trash though and the Lions are still good. Side note: of all the possible one-on-one fights we could see in the NFL, Dan Cambell vs. Maxx Crosby has to be top ten. Top five maybe? The last of this tier almost ended up in the second tier, because it’s still hard for me to bet on Kirk Chainz, but I might have to except that Green Bay is bad. Jordan Addison had a coming out party last week and I think he continues to produce with Justin Jefferson sidelined.

Tier 2: Semi-Confident Favorite Bets (Season Record: 9-9)

Ravens -8.5 over Cardinals

Chiefs -7.5 over Broncos

Cowboys -6.5 over Rams

There are several times while picking games this week that I could hear Ross Geller screeching, “Pivot!!” in my ear. Mostly I ignored that impulse. However, it seems like folly to ignore that Baltimore, and particularly Lamar Jackson, is starting to play good, maybe even great, football. I outlined last week that Arizona is a three-quarter team, and I feel like the Ravens pull away late. Didn’t we just see Kansas City and Denver on a sloppy Thursday night? Even if this one’s in Denver, I don’t expect a different result. If anything, I think this one could get even uglier. Dallas has been more inconsistent than I’d expect, but I like them coming off a bye. The Cowboys defense is elite and will make things hard for Matt Stafford, especially against a non-existent Los Angeles running game without Kyren Williams.

Tier 3: Home Dogs (Season Record: 18-9-1)

Steelers +2.5 over Jaguars

Colts +1.5 over Saints

This tier can be summed up rather easily. I love Mike Tomlin as a home dog. I love betting against a favored New Orleans team, especially if said New Orleans team is on the road. Jacksonville is playing good football and has some extra time to prepare after playing on Thursday, but Mike Tomlin thrives in the underdog role, especially at home. Pittsburgh is coming off a decent road win at Los Angeles last week and might be picking up some momentum. Indianapolis almost took down the Browns last week. More impressively, they scored a bunch of points against a good defense. Josh Downs really seems to be emerging alongside Michael Pittman, and Jonthan Taylor is back in the backfield. This offense, even without Anthony Richardson, has more firepower than we thought. If Gardner Minshew protects the football, I think Indianapolis wins.

Tier 4: Road Dogs (Season Record: 10-13)

Bucs +8.5 over Bills

Browns +3.5 over Seahawks

Why are we still giving the injury-plagued Bills more than a touchdown? I know I’ve been hammering the “Baker thrives in the underdog role” drum only to have it backfire two weeks in a row, but seriously why should we expect the Bills to lay 8.5 on anyone? They just lost to a much worse New England team. This isn’t Buffalo’s fault entirely, but they have been the injury bug team this year. Plus, it’s a Thursday night and things usually get silly. Cleveland is another team that lets me down every time I pick them, but I can’t get over Cincinnati sacking Geno Smith every time Seattle got the ball in the red zone two weeks ago. I think this Seattle team is good, especially offensively, but I think a strong pass rush, which Cleveland has, is their kryptonite. Seattle may be good enough to win, but 3.5 is at least half-a-point too high.

Tier 5: Hot Diggity Dogs (Season Record: 11-12)

Titans +2.5 over Falcons

Commanders +6.5 over Eagles

Bears +8.5 over Chargers

Giants +3 over Jets

Bengals +3.5 over 49ers

You see how many games are in this last tier? This is why this is the midseason shrug. Could the Falcons beat another mediocre team on a last second field goal? Sure. Is it wise to gamble on a newly single Will Levis making his first NFL start? Probably not. Do I prefer betting on that and Derrick Henry than Desmond Ridder against a competent NFL defense? Yes, I do. Do I think the Eagles are more than a touchdown better than the Commanders? Yes, I do. Has that been the result when these teams have met the last two times? It has not. If you’ll remember, Washington took Philly to overtime earlier this year and was the first team to beat them last year. Also, the last time Jalen Hurts had to play at the trash heap known as FedEx Field a grandstand almost fell on him. He’ll get his revenge in the form of a win; it just won’t be by 7+ points if recent trends continue. Continuing the rhetorical question trend: do I think the Chargers should beat the Bears by double digits on paper? Yes, I do, but Bagentmania is here! Chicago just pounded the Raiders with Tyson Bagent under center and the Chargers never blow teams out. They prefer to go 1/6 on 4^th down attempts and get a field goal blocked as time expires to lose by two. The Battle for New York should be a low-scoring affair. The Jets, coming off a bye, were last seen giving the Eagles their first loss of the season after turning Jalen Hurts over four times. However, I think with Saquon Barkley back that the Giants can run the ball and control the clock well enough to keep this gave tight. The much-maligned Zack Wilson has been playing the best football of his career, but he could give the Giants some extra chances if he reverts to old habits. At the end of the day, I think Brian Daboll/Tyrod Taylor/Daniel Jones > Robert Saleh/Zack Wilson

Cincinnati vs. San Francisco deserves its own quick paragraph. My initial thought was that San Francisco bounces back this week at home, even without Deebo Samuel. However, Brock Purdy began to have concussion-like symptoms on the plane from Minneapolis back to San Francisco. He is in concussion protocol and his status for Sunday is in doubt, but if there is any consideration of a concussion it is extremely unlikely that he will play six days later. The Bengals have been showing more signs of life recently and 3.5 points is a high line for a Sam Darnold-led team against a Cincinnati team that is a) still very talented and b) knows that it needs every week to climb back into the playoff picture. Without Brock Purdy and Deebo Samuel, this one will be close.

Last Week: 6-7

Season Record: 55-49-2

Cover Photo Courtesy of Sam Navarro/USA TODAY Sports