I’m currently writing this with no internet in front of a wood-burning fire in a log cabin somewhere in the Great Smoky Mountains. My long overdue vacation has arrived and I’m still here to bring you some picks…and hopefully some entertainment. It is my rest time so this week’s edition will be short and sweet. In honor of the occasion, I’ll also dole out some praise on one of each tier’s winners as a potential vacation destination. In fairness, I have not visited all these places so some of it will be word of mouth. Also, some of these places are decidedly not vacation spots, so don’t take these as endorsements.

Tier 1: It’s Still Rock ‘n Roll To Me (Season Record: 7-4-1)

Lions +3 over Ravens

Browns -2.5 over Colts

Like I said, don’t take these as endorsements. If your friend comes to you and tells you he/she is considering taking a vacation and there two choices are Detroit or Cleveland, you are probably telling them to postpone their vacation and find a third option. However, the Rock ‘n Roll Hall of Fame is in Cleveland and probably worth a visit if you’re ever in the area. Plus, as a long-time Cleveland Indians/Guardians fan, I have always wanted to go see a game at Progressive Field. All this to say, maybe don’t go on vacation to Detroit or Cleveland, but betting on both could help fund a vacation this week!

Detroit is one of the hottest teams in football right now and I’m kind of shocked they are getting a full three points. Baltimore did win across the pond, but the return trip usually contributes to a hangover the following week, and I still don’t like this Ravens offense. As far as Cleveland goes, I don’t know as of this writing but based on everything I had been hearing it seems like Deshaun Watson could be ready to go this week. Regardless, the Jaguars showed last week exactly how to beat this Colts team. Pressure Gardner Minshew. Cleveland is perfectly built to be able to do this, plus Indianapolis is reeling with the news that Anthony Richardson is done for the year.

Tier 2: We’re Going to Disney World! (Season Record: 8-8)

Jaguars +1.5 over Saints

Bucs -2.5 over Falcons

As I sit here writing this, I feel like the famous saying actually says “DisneyLand”, not “Disney World”, but Disney World is the one in Florida. I have been to the “Most Magical Place on Earth” once as an adult and feel it’s worth the trip. Maybe not an annual adventure kind of thing, but maybe once a decade is a good time. If you have kids, they deserve the opportunity. It’s a rite of passage, kind of like your first beer or something.

Jacksonville looks like they are starting to figure things out. Maybe there two-week London vacation did them good. The Saints can beat bad teams (see the Patriots box score), but I don’t think this offense can hang with Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne right now. I’m wary of betting this confidently considering that it’s a Thursday night game and those always go sideways, but that’s the only reason for skepticism. Tampa Bay let me down last week and got locked down by a good Lions defense, but I’m done betting on Desmond Ridder for the time being.

Tier 3: The Pacific Northwest is Calling (Season Record: 16-8-1)

Eagles -2.5 over Dolphins

Seahawks -7.5 over Cardinals

Rams -3 over Steelers

I’ve been to Seattle once in my life. It was the summer before my junior year of high school, and I swore I would go back as soon as possible. Fifteen years later and I still haven’t been back. That’s life, I guess. Seattle was a great time with a much better climate than it gets credit for. Go if/when you can.

Dr. Allison Shaw, a friend and former co-resident, accuses me of hating her precious Philadelphia Eagles. I can thank her for understanding how Joe Buck feels for once. I don’t hate your Eagles Allison, but I have been right about them. They leave points on the board and they screw around too much. Here’s the thing: they are still awesome at football when they want to be. I really think this team, especially the defense, steps up to win a Sunday night thriller. Seattle showed on Sunday that the offensive line is vulnerable against a decent pass rush. The Seahawks outgained the Bengals and between the twenties moved the ball really well, but when they got themselves into passing downs Cincinnati was able to get to Geno Smith, forcing Seattle to squander multiple scoring opportunities. The Cardinals do not have a decent pass rush. Arizona is a prime example of Mike Lombardi’s “three quarter team” theory. They are good enough to hang around for three quarters, but I think the Seahawks pull away late. With Cooper Kupp back, are the Rams good? They certainly look much better than anyone, me especially, thought they would. Pittsburgh always has a few “horseshoe up the rear” games and if this one were in Pittsburgh I may be inclined to take the points, but I actually like this Rams team at home.

Tier 4: A Tale of Two Cities (Season Record: 8-11)

Patriots +8.5 over Bills

Giants +2.5 over Commanders

Packers -1.5 over Broncos

Chargers +5.5 over Chiefs

Los Angeles or New York. Tinseltown or Gotham. Finkle is Einhorn. The two largest cities in the country are popular tourist destinations for a reason. There are unique things to see and plenty to do. I have admittedly never spent much time in either. I have flown into both airports and been to a baseball game in Anaheim. If you want visiting recommendations, ask another friend…or my parents who have much more time to travel than I do. (Side note: I don’t begrudge them that at all. They’ve worked hard all of their lives and deserve these opportunities.)

I really hate betting on all four of these teams to be honest, but this week I think it’s the right play. The Patriots are a bad football team, but Buffalo is playing with one arm behind their back, metaphorically, with all the injury problems. I think that allows New England to keep this closer than it should be, not unlike last Sunday night with the Giants. Speaking of the Giants, Brian Daboll is too good of a coach for this team not to win a few games they otherwise shouldn’t. I think at home against a Commanders team that is fraudulent is a great opportunity. I’m invoking the “always bet against the 2023 Broncos” clause for the Packers-Broncos tilt.

The most interesting game of this tier to me, so much so that it gets its own paragraph, is the Chargers-Chiefs game. It would be easy to straight bet Mahomes, but this team actually has some problems. Those have been papered over by a relatively easy stretch of schedule and Pat Mahomes’ own brilliance and Taylor Swift’s charismatic presence, but this Kansas City team is not the juggernaut we’ve come to expect. The Chargers lost yet another heartbreaker on Monday night, don’t say I told you so, but they have shown time and time again that they are the best in the business at losing a football game. There is a key distinction between being good at losing a football game and being good at getting beat in a football game. The Denver Broncos are great at the latter, while the Chargers are masters of the former. The key distinction is that you have to have a chance to win the game to be the one to lose it, which usually means losing by fewer than 5.5 points.

Tier 5: The City By The Bay (Season Record: 10-11)

49ers -7 over Vikings

Bears +3 over Raiders

San Francisco and Chicago are two more cities on my “need to travel to” list. What can I say? Eight years of medical training takes up a lot of time and discretionary income. I have at least flown into Chicago and interviewed for a job in a Chicago suburb, so it’s less foreign to me than San Francisco. Both are high on my future destination list, though.

As of this writing, Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams all might play on Monday night. Regardless, I’m not betting on Kirk Cousins in primetime. You can’t make me. Raise your hand if you knew who Tyson Bagent was before Sunday. Now that your hand is in the air, loudly say your prayers of repentance for lying. No one outside the Bears locker room or Martinsburg, WV knew who Tyson Bagent was. Is it folly to bet on him this weekend? Maybe. Is it any worse than betting on Justin Fields or this terrible Raiders team? No. I’m defaulting to these are two bad teams and I can bet on a home underdog. That seems like as good a reason as any, and if I get a great unknown backup quarterback story to cheer for in the process then all the better.

Last Week: 7-8

Season Record: 49-42-2

Cover Photo Courtesy of Junfu Han/Detroit Free Press