Temperatures are dropping. Leaves are changing colors. Bette Midler smells children. October is here and while that brings fake giant spider webs and spooky costumes and scary movies, it also brings scares for college football teams’ playoff hopes and dreams. For this week’s spooky edition of “The Playoff Picture”, we will look at the remaining game on each team’s schedule that should spook them the most.

Rose Bowl (#1 vs. #4)- Ohio State vs. Washington

Trying to rank the top four was more difficult than choosing the twelve this week. There are holes to be poked in every team’s case to be number one, but beating Maryland by three scores is a reasonable accomplishment and the Buckeyes win over Notre Dame, on the road, is still a feat despite the Fighting Irish’s letdown in Louisville. The obvious monster under the bed, so to speak, for Ohio State and especially Ryan Day is Michigan waiting at the end of the year. However, I’m not here to point out the obvious. There’s another game Ohio State needs to be wary of at the end of the month. Three days before Halloween the Buckeyes travel to Wisconsin. This will be the week after Ohio State has a slugfest with Penn State. Regardless of who wins that game, both teams will come out the worse for wear. Wisconsin gets a little bit better each week under Luke Fickell. Ohio State needs to regroup and come to Madison focused or they will be on upset alert to end the month.

I still think Washington is the best team by the “eye test”, but we are deep enough into the season that the other components of the playoff resume can’t be ignored, and Washington’s back-loaded schedule means they are yet to face their true tests. That all changes this week. Oregon heads up to Seattle in the first major game to give us an indicator of who might be ready to represent the Pac-12 in the CFB Playoff. Again, the obvious choice would be this weekend or the trip to the Coliseum to start November. However, I’m here like an Etruscan soothsayer to tell the Huskies to, “Beware the Apple Cup.” Washington State is a team I just can’t quit and if you don’t think Cam Ward can duel with any quarterback in this conference then you’re wrong. Washington ends the year with four consecutive games against currently ranked teams, with Washington State being the last of those four. That’s a grueling stretch and each week it gets harder and harder to bring your best. Plus, if Washington does survive those games, then they must get through a conference title game and potentially a playoff and national championship game. That would be seven consecutive games against ranked teams to end the year. Woof! (Pun intended).

Sugar Bowl (#2 vs. #3)- Oklahoma vs. Florida State

Red River, as is its wont, got really damn weird. Oklahoma prevailed, and what’s more they looked like the better team in the process. It’s entirely possible that both Texas and Oklahoma are #back, just in time to head to the SEC. Kansas is the only currently ranked team remaining on Oklahoma’s schedule, and the Sooners head to Lawrence to end the year. Oklahoma needs to be careful hosting West Virginia though. That’s the week after Bedlam, which Oklahoma almost always wins but it’s an intense rivalry game all the same. If you remember, I hammered West Virginia’s under 5.5 wins on the podcast to start the year and suggested they would be the worst team in the conference. I was wrong. Allow this as my recompense to the Mountaineers. This would be a prime opportunity for a letdown as a home game sandwiched between two road trips.

No team has needed a bye this season more than Florida State did two weeks ago, and they looked like they used the opportunity to get right and get Jordan Travis healthy. The Seminoles rebounded nicely against an admittedly bad Virginia Tech team. There are several games left on Florida State’s schedule that seem like obvious traps like Duke and Miami and even Florida, so we need to find the truly scare game. Now, I don’t know if you know this or not but this is a time of the year for traditions. Trick or treating. Thanksgiving feasts. Christmas merriment. Family discord. The Pitt Super Weapon! What? You don’t know about that last one? The Pitt Super Weapon strikes once per year. Clemson used to be the prominent victim, but this year it could be the Seminoles turn if they aren’t careful. This Pitt team is just bad enough to be in “super weapon” territory too.

Orange Bowl- Louisville vs. Penn State

The big question, to me, for the ACC this year has been who steps up to get a crack, or potentially second crack, at Florida State for the conference title. Little did I know, I should have been paying more attention to my own employer! The Cards haven’t always done it impressively this year, but they really showed up and locked down a good, balanced Notre Dame offense. Louisville is a tough team to run the ball on, and they have an ability to make offenses one-dimensional, which is exactly how they beat the Irish. This probably isn’t the best time to extoll Kentucky’s virtues but that will be the game Louisville needs to watch out for. There’s a chance they get to that game with an ACC title berth already locked up, and an outside chance that more could be on the line for them, but they can’t come in content with a good season or that’s all they will get. Kentucky can be physical along the line too, and even though they got pantsed by Georgia, this is a team that can match physical play.

Penn State could honestly just have what I said about them last week and the week before that copied and pasted. This Nittany Lions team may be playing third fiddle to Ohio State and Michigan in some people’s eyes, but the Big Ten East is legitimately a three-team race still. Defensively, Penn State can lock up anybody. Other than UMass this weekend, it’s tough to identify a team outside of Ohio State and Michigan to threaten Penn State. (Just kidding about the UMass part). Ohio State and Michigan are probably the only two potential losses left on Penn State’s schedule and the time is ripe for James Franklin to show this team isn’t a third fiddle.

Cotton Bowl- USC vs. Michigan

There’s a lot to like about this USC team. Caleb Williams is a superstar. They have classic threads. The skill players are talented. There’s a couple of major things to not like, mostly the line play on both sides of the ball. How does a team who is the preeminent power in arguably the most talented state in the country for high school recruiting unable to put together a strong offensive and defensive line? That is going to bite this team at some point this season, and it very well may be this weekend. Notre Dame is at a season low and USC may expect them to roll over, but the Fighting Irish lose by getting beat up front and the Trojans can’t do that. Audric Estime is going to run wild and Notre Dame will take down USC this weekend. Shot called.

Michigan is absolutely rolling and seem like a team on a mission. They finally allowed double digits for the first time this season last week, giving up exactly ten points. An absolute wild and, to keep with the theme, spooky stat for the season is that the Wolverines have yet to face a 1^st and Goal this season. No team has taken a snap inside their ten through six games. Wild. Again, it would be easy to point out that Michigan still has to play Penn State and Ohio State. Those are the games to be sure. Sandwiched in between those two is a trip to Maryland though and this offense can do some things. If the Terps can jump out to a lead, not unlike they did last weekend against Ohio State, then this could be the trap that snares the Wolverines.

Fiesta Bowl- Air Force vs. Oregon

Last week, I wrote that Fresno State and Air Force seemed on a collision course for a conference title, then turned around and, correctly, picked Wyoming to upset the Bulldogs. Wyoming is good and that’s the team that Air Force should also be on upset alert against, especially since the Falcons head to Laramie this weekend. Heading to Boise State to end the year isn’t the fear-inducing trip it once was, but the Smurf turf can always bite you if you come in unprepared. Truth be told, Air Force has a manageable schedule the rest of the way and we are overdue for a service academy to make a New Year’s Six appearance.

Much like Washington, Oregon’s second half schedule is brutal. Five of their last seven games are against ranked teams. The challenge here isn’t finding a game that would trip Oregon up. The challenge is finding a game that isn’t potentially losable, aside from Arizona State. The one I’ll earmark though is the trip to Utah in a few weeks. Cam Rising will likely be back by then and Utah’s toughness is always difficult. Oregon is stronger up front then the teams that got criticized as being all sizzle and no steak, but Utah is still the most physical team in the conference. Oregon gets Washington State, USC and Oregon State at home. They could lose any of those, but the Autzen Zoo is still one of the better homefield advantages in college football. If the Ducks lose, it’s more likely to happen away from home.

Peach Bowl- Georgia vs. North Carolina

Georgia must have heard me. The Bulldogs finally showed up and did it in a big way last weekend. They looked more like 2021 Georgia than 2014 Florida State on Saturday. The path to the SEC championship game is incredibly clear, as pundits have been quick to point out all season. Not to sound too FDR, but the only team Georgia has to fear is themselves. The Dawgs are much more likely to lose a game than they are to have someone flat out beat them, at least until the playoffs. Ole Miss and Tennessee seem like the most likely players capable of taking advantage of a Georgia no-show, but Georgia’s “B” game is still good enough to beat these teams.

Mack Brown might have to start dealing with some expectations, and we all know that’s his biggest fear. We knew Drake Maye was the best quarterback in the ACC coming into the season, but we didn’t know if North Carolina’s offensive line was good enough to allow him to thrive. They are. We also didn’t know if UNC was going to make any improvement on the defensive side on the ball. They have. This team is a threat. The three road games remaining on the Heels’ schedule are spooky specters. Georgia Tech isn’t a good football team, but they just showed they can beat teams who don’t show up (or that make truly inexplicable coaching decisions). Clemson may not be the same team they once were, but Death Valley is still Death Valley. If North Carolina survives both of those, then a brief trip to Raleigh to end the year with N.C. State looms. The Wolfpack have a solid run defense and an experienced quarterback in Brendan Armstrong. The other problem is if the Mack Brown and company make it to those last two games unscathed then they will also have to deal with the seemingly unbearable weight of people expecting them to be good.

Cover Photo Courtesy of Joseph Maiorana/USA TODAY Sports