Picture this: you walk into your local Golden Corral. I’m not sure why you’ve done this. You probably aren’t entirely sure either. But you pay your money. You get your cup, tray and plate. Now it’s time to decide what you want. The golden fried chicken? The carving station? The barbecue? You don’t know what you’re going for but you know you’ll end up with an eclectic assortment of mismatched foods to make a meal. That’s how this week is for the NFL. We could get a lot of good games. We could get a lot of terrible games. We will probably get a lot of in-between, but to paraphrase a wise man, “Who gives a shit? It’s a good game. It’s a bad game. It’s like pizza baby! It’s good no matter what!”
Tier 1: The Rodney Dangerfield Zone (Season Record: 6-3-1)
Seahawks +3 over Bengals
Texans +1.5 over Saints
There are few constants in life and even fewer in an NFL football season. The “Rodney Dangerfield Zone” is a constant though. There are always a few teams that just seem like that can’t get no respect. This year’s first few members of “The Zone” are the Seahawks and Texans. Congrats! I know the Bengals offense seemed to wake up against a bad Cardinals defense last week, but I’m not ready to declare them back. I also don’t think Geno Smith will gift them a pick six the same way Josh Dobbs did last week. Tee Higgins seems like he will be out at least another week. Speaking of which, you can grab Ja’Marr Chase and Tyreek Hill 250+ combined receiving yards at +450 right now. There’s my first special bet, aka money burn, of the week. I do think Cincinnati can get some points in this game, but Seattle has a good offense and I don’t think the Bengals are necessarily #back yet.
New Orleans pounded the incompetent Patriots on Sunday. They haven’t scored more than 20 points in any other game this season, including games against the Packers, Titans and Panthers. Those teams rank 17th, 20th and 29th in defensive DVOA respectively. Houston has an up arrow with C.J. Stroud and DeMeco Ryans. They may have given up a last second field goal to lose to Atlanta last Sunday, but their rookie quarterback still led them down the field and gave them a lead late. They shouldn’t be a home dog to this Saints team.
Tier 2: Autopilot (Season Record: 7-7)
49ers -6.5 over Browns
Chiefs -10.5 over Broncos
Betting on San Francisco and betting against Denver feel like the closest thing we have to weekly “set it and forget it” gambling options at this point. This 49ers team is rolling and really the only good reason to bet against them right now is, “Do you really think they will go 17-0?” I don’t think they will go 17-0, but that also doesn’t mean I feel confident I can identify the one or two games they will lose. Cleveland does have a good defense and it is a road game. If Deshaun Watson is healthy, the Browns could win this game at home, but that doesn’t mean I’m betting on it. Frankly, this feels like the San Francisco-Pittsburg matchup from the opening week of the season. Don’t get cute. Just bet the best team.
On the flip side, don’t get cute. Just bet against the worst team. Denver looks like a team that’s completely incapable of putting four quarters together. They came back to beat Chicago, but they were also down 28-7 at one point. They held a lead against the Jets last week, and then self-destructed. Thursday night games can get weird and Kansas City has a tendency to screw around in games they know they’ll win. That being said, if you aren’t prepared to bet the Chiefs on a Thursday night, just stay away.
Tier 3: Trust No Friends Without Faults (Season Record: 13-7-1)
Cowboys -2.5 over Chargers
Dolphins -13.5 over Panthers
Vikings -2.5 over Bears
Bills -14 over Giants
For what I consider to be a reasonably interesting week of football in general, the prime-time games all have serious potential to be bad. We already discussed the Chiefs. Could we really not flex anything else to Sunday night but Bills and Giants? Buffalo came back to Earth in London last Sunday and the defensive injuries are becoming frightening and borderline insurmountable with Matt Milano out for the year. Josh Allen and the offense will be better this weekend and, even against a depleted Bills defense, I don’t think the G-men can keep up.
Miami gets another huge spread to cover, but Carolina is one of the least talented teams in the league. Miami’s defense can be scored on and might provide some opportunities for Bryce Young to get some confidence. This is still a two-score game though.
Monday night gives us the best chance for an entertaining prime-time game. That’s counting on the Chargers waiting until the last minute to screw the pooch instead of doing it earlier in the game. Dallas got exposed by San Francisco last week, but there might only be one team capable of doing that. Justin Herbert is a unique talent and he may be good enough to keep this one tight, but I can’t imagine Los Angeles not blowing this somehow. Also, Brandon Staley vs. Mike McCarthy feels like the NFL version of when two fans surround themselves with overstuffed beachball material and bump into each other. Somebody will win. Neither person will look like Albert Einstein in the process.
As long as Kirk Cousins is playing at 1:00, I like him against this miserable Bears team that no one outside of Minneapolis or Chicago will voluntarily watch. Justin Jefferson being out is a big blow, but this is a game where Minnesota can survive his absence.
Tier 4: Teams With Talons (Season Record: 8-9)
Cardinals +7 over Rams
Falcons -2.5 over Commanders
My apologies for not having a more creative tier title for this one, sometimes it’s hard. Arizona let me down last week but should the Rams be favored by a touchdown over anyone? Ok, maybe Carolina or Denver, but they shouldn’t be getting more than four in this one. I think Dobbs can make a few plays and keep this one interesting.
Atlanta managed to avoid the home upset last week, and I think they do it again this week. Washington is coming off a just dismal performance against the Bears. How does Chicago drop 40 on you? That’s a challenge to your manhood. This game will not be a bastion of good quarterback play, but I do like what the Robinsons (Bijan and Brian) have done this year.
Tier 5: More Questions Than Answers (Season Record: 8-8)
Jets +7 over Eagles
Raiders -3 over Patriots
Bucs +3 over Lions
Colts +4.5 over Jaguars
Titans +4 over Ravens
How many points will Philadelphia leave on the board? Can New York’s defense score any points to keep them in this thing? Will Sauce Gardner take away A.J. Brown or Devonta Smith or flip sides? (Special bet #2: A.J. Brown and Cooper Kupp combined 200+ yards at +250. The A.J. Brown and Puka Nacua missed by 2 yards last week. I think we make it back this week). Philadelphia just has too much of a knack for letting teams hang around and the Jets defense is just good enough to make me feel this line is four points too high.
Has Jimmy G gotten the interceptions out of his system? Is he even the best quarterback in Las Vegas? Is Bill Belichick done? Has Mac Jones gotten the turnovers out of his system? The last question, unfortunately, is the one I feel most confident answering in the negative, so we’re going with Las Vegas.
How seriously should we take Detroit as a contender? Should anyone bet against Baker Mayfield as a home underdog? This feels like a classic: “the Bucs are up 17-13 with 7 minutes left in the game and no one really understands how or why” game.
How jetlagged will Jacksonville be? Why are they so much better in Europe than in the United States? Why does Doug Pederson look like Beaker? Will the Colts be fine with Gardner Minshew? This game feels a little wonky. I think you take the points if you have to bet it, which you don’t by the way.
What is wrong with Baltimore? They looked like they were going to steamroll Pittsburgh and then all of a sudden…they didn’t. Which version of Tennessee’s offense will we get? Is Ryan Tannehill washed or not? Is Tennessee’s defense any good? Honestly, I can’t answer any of these questions. I think taking the points is the play, but yet again, you don’t have to bet this.
Last Week: 10-3-1
Season Record: 42-34-2
Special Bet Dollar Value Lost (based on $10 per special bet):
Cover Photo Courtesy of Geoffrey Wilson/Poughkeepsie Journal
4 Down Territory 
