The column hasn’t even started yet and I’m already hedging with the title, but in the illustrious words of Latto, “I’m just bein’ honest.” This week looks like a gambling nightmare full of upset traps and games ripe for backdoor covers. If you are ever going to pick a week to sit and watch from the sidelines, this is a pretty good one to choose. It’s also not a bad weekend for the local Fall Festival or annual pumpkin patch visit. Otherwise, who’s ready to jump feet first into the weekend with me and throw away some money?

Tier 1: The Games I Hate the Least (Season Record: 4-3-1)

Jets +1.5 over Broncos

Chiefs -4 over Vikings

Denver managed to storm back from a 21-point deficit to claim their first win of the Sean Payton era last Sunday, but does it really count if it’s against the Bears? The Broncos and the Bears are both horrible. The Jets, on the other hand, at least have a great defense. Why is Denver the favorite here? I know the theme for the week is hating all the lines, but I low key really like the Jets this week. The thought of betting on Zach Wilson on the road is tough to stomach, but you know what? Lost in all the “Swiftie” mania that overtook the Sunday Night Football broadcast, Zach Wilson looked competent for a large part of that game. I’m not sure how I feel about it happening two weeks in a row, but the Jets defense should be enough to win this game. Speaking of the “Swiftie mania”, the Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift romance, if you believe in such things, has made every Chiefs game “must-watch television” for a demographic that wouldn’t normally be glued to the television at 4:25 P.M. EST on a Sunday. That makes every Kansas City game, until the inevitable break-up and break-up song, a prime-time game. We all know Kirk Cousins can’t perform in prime time. Sorry Kirk but I don’t think your chain collection is going to sweep TSwizzle off her feet.

Tier 2: The Special Bet Tier (Season Record: 4-7)

Dolphins -10.5 over Giants

Saints -1 over Patriots

Eagles -4.5 over Rams

“An irrational fear that one of these three teams might shank me this weekend kept me from putting any of these games a tier higher.” That’s how I started the second-tier breakdown last week. I didn’t get shanked by one of the teams. I got shanked by all of them. Frankly, that was the start of gambling hate week. The Dolphins were one of the teams that shanked me last week, and I think they could do it in a different way this week. I have no concerns that Miami will lose to this miserable Giants team. However, I do have some fear of Saquon Barkley returning and keeping this game just close enough for a Daniel Jones-to-Darren Waller touchdown with 27 seconds left for a backdoor cover.

New Orleans is a team that I can’t figure out, but if Derek Carr has the green light, they are better than this reeling Patriots team. Mac Jones has had a rough go and the running game that was supposed to mitigate the need to lean on a young quarterback just hasn’t been there. New Orleans has a good defense, last week’s gashing by Baker Mayfield aside, and I think they will make life difficult for New England on Sunday. I really hate betting on Dennis Allen against Bill Belichick, especially with Dennis Allen being on the road, but I just think New Orleans is better as long as Carr plays. Also, for the first of two special bets for the week, can I tempt you with either Alvin Kamara OR Rhamondre Stevenson 1+ receiving touchdown at 5/1? Stevenson has not had the impact in the passing game, so far, that we expected, and Belichick is a mastermind at taking away opposing team’s number one option, but it’s going to be 60 degrees and sunny in Foxborough on Sunday and Mac and Carr both know how to check the ball down.

One of the few things I’ve gotten right this year is pegging the Los Angeles Rams as a “frisky” team. They showed that and more last week jumping out to a 23-point lead on the Colts and then avoiding the epic collapse with a touchdown drive to seal the game in overtime. If that doesn’t scream, “bad but frisky”, I’m not sure what does. Matt Stafford’s leadership of this team has been impressive, and Puka Nacua has been a revelation. Could this receiving corps be good when Cooper Kupp returns? Are they already good? Philadelphia still leaves points on the board and, not unlike last year’s Chiefs, plays with their prey a little too much, but I think this defensive front will give Matt Stafford problems and force a few turnovers. Here’s the second special bet for the week: Puka Nacua and A.J. Brown 200+ combined receiving yards +250. The beautiful thing about this bet is you have something to pull for on every non-special teams play. Puka seems destined to average 12 catches/game and this Rams secondary isn’t good enough to keep A.J. Brown from busting at least one big play.

Tier 3: What’s Not to Hate? (Season Record: 10-7)

Lions -9.5 over Panthers

Texans +2 over Falcons

Colts +1 over Titans

49ers -3.5 over Cowboys

It seems like time to accept that the Detroit Lions are good. Plus, they get Jameson Williams back from his gambling suspension this week. (Side note: don’t gamble at work. It’s not worth it). I fully expect Detroit to cruise against a bad Carolina team, especially in Detroit, but laying 9.5 opens back door cover opportunities when the Lions take their foot off the gas.

It seems like time to accept that the Houston Texans are…better than anyone thought they’d be? C.J. Stroud has easily been the best rookie quarterback and has probably been the best rookie period. Bijan Robinson is the only other rookie who might have something to say about that, but this Atlanta team really struggled against Jacksonville last week. I expect similar struggles against a Houston defense that is well-coached.

Tennessee gives me whiplash. They lose a tight one to New Orleans to start the year, then they benefit from letting the Chargers beat themselves. Follow that up with a pair of 27-3 finals, one a loss to the Browns and the other a win over the Bengals. Ryan Tannehill goes from looking competent to completely washed up on a weekly basis. There’s a chance that Derrick Henry just runs roughshod over this Colts defense, but Anthony Richardson was decent in the second half against the Rams last week. He takes too many hits, but he has already shown the athleticism that made him the number four pick in the draft. Also, Jonathan Taylor’s return to practice, even if he is unlikely to suit up this weekend, must be a morale booster for the team.

Sunday night is absolutely the game to watch this week. The 49ers and the Cowboys have the two best defenses in the NFL, and either one of them could completely take over this game. Brock Purdy, despite having a “game manager” label, tends to throw some risky passes and Dallas has a propensity to capitalize on those. However, Dak Prescott is no different, as he has shown in the last two playoff losses to San Francisco. I like the 49ers at home. The three-and-a-half is a little rich, but this is a rivalry game and a game for one team to assert its position as the best in the conference early. That makes this like a playoff game in October and you should just bet whomever you think will win, regardless of the spread.

Tier 4: Fear and Self-Loathing in Las Vegas (Season Record: 7-7)

Commanders -5.5 over Bears

Steelers +4 over Ravens

Packers -1 over Raiders

Should every week just be a straight bet against the Bears until further notice? Yes. The fact that I have to count on Washington to beat somebody by more than a field goal nauseates me. The fact that this is Thursday night gives me straight-up indigestion. Chicago’s offense has been mostly incompetent all year though and the Commanders have demonstrated an ability to beat bad teams at least.

I sincerely think this Baltimore-Pittsburgh line is a trap. Baltimore has overcome significant injury attrition to get to 3-1. They also scored 28 points against a good Cleveland defense last week. However, they have also played two rookie quarterbacks, a clearly hobbled quarterback, and a backup quarterback. I’m not sure where Kenny Pickett ranks in the group of quarterbacks, in their state at the time of the game, Baltimore has faced this season, but it’s no worse than third. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, needed two defensive scores to beat the Browns and beat a bad Raiders team in a weird Sunday night game. Mostly, the Steelers have been impotent on offense and just gave up 30 points to the Texans. AFC North games always get weird though and are usually close. The game is also in Pittsburgh and the Terrible Towels will be waving free. I think Pittsburgh’s defense keeps them in the game and barring a Kenny Pickett disaster performance this one will be closer than many would expect.

I told you last week I can’t quit Green Bay, and I’m doing it to myself again. I’m perfectly prepared to be full of self-loathing watching this pitiful game on Monday night. It’s just hard for me to imagine the Packers losing to this Raiders team with a long week to prepare though. Jordan Love has been competent all year. A few extra days might allow Aaron Jones to get right too. David Bakhtiari probably won’t play on the turf at Allegiant Stadium, which concerns me some with Maxx Crosby on the other side of the ball. However, unless Las Vegas can manage a defensive score or two, I don’t think they win this game.

Tier 5: Take the Tums, Omeprazole, and Pepcid Beforehand (Season Record: 7-7)

Jaguars +5.5 over Bills

Cardinals +3 over Bengals

I expect the money to come pouring in on Buffalo this week. It seems like the play, right? The Bills just vanquished the hottest team in football. Josh Allen looked like an MVP candidate again. Stefon Diggs looks unguardable. How could this Jacksonville team, that might be bad, stay in this game? There are two reasons I think the Jaguars keep this game closer than they should, because I absolutely think Buffalo is a touchdown or more better than Jacksonville. First, this game is in London, but unfortunately not Andy’s Room, and Jacksonville could just stay out there and prepare without having to fly across “The Pond” this week. Second, last Sunday was a Pyrrhic victory for the Bills. Tre’Davious White unfortunately was lost for the season to a torn Achilles tendon and Christian Benford also left with a shoulder injury. The Bills secondary is as banged up as the Ravens running back room. That should give Trevor Lawrence some opportunities for chunk plays down the field. I don’t think Jacksonville will beat Buffalo, but I think it’s closer than expected based on those two things. I don’t feel good about this at all.

Arizona is not as bad as I, or many, thought they’d be this season. They were two dropped passes away from covering against San Francisco last week. They beat the Dallas Cowboys by double digits, which is still the weirdest game of the season. Josh Dobbs is playing a little bit of backyard football, but it’s honestly not dissimilar from what Kyler Murray gives them and it has had the effect of allowing the Cardinals to field a competent offense. Arizona is 12^th in the NFL in yards per game through four weeks. The Bengals, by comparison, are last. This could be the week that Cincinnati finally puts it together. Arizona could also drive this car off the cliff at any point in time and start the tank job. I just don’t think you can bet on both of those things happening simultaneously.

Last Week: 8-8

Season Record: 32-31-1

Special Bet Dollar Value Lost (based on $10 per special bet): -$10

Cover Photo Courtesy of Denny Medley/USA TODAY Sports