Full disclosure: I only saw one football game on Sunday. The schedule didn’t look that promising and baseball season is winding down, so Crystal, my fiancé for those that don’t know, and I decided to drive to Cincinnati to catch the Reds home finale. It was worth it to see Joey Votto get a standing ovation, a vintage single up the middle, and a curtain call in what will likely be his last home game in a Reds uniform. However, I couldn’t help but catch trickles of scores and updates from the NFL action and think “WTF is happening right now?” The Dolphins score 70?! The Texans blow out the Jaguars?! The Cardinals are beating the Cowboys?! The Colts beating their former city with Gardner Minshew?! The Chargers didn’t give away a 4th quarter lead?! Taylor Swift is at the Chiefs game?! Kirk Cousins threw an interception in a key mo….oh wait that’s not one. Sorry I got carried away. Anyway, this s exactly what the NFL wants. This is a prime example of “See every Sunday something wild might happen!” You know what? They are absolutely right. This is why we glue ourselves to our televisions for hours on end.
Tier 1: Make-Up Bet Monday™ (Season Record: 3-3-1)
Seahawks +1.5 over Giants
Monday Night Football is the only game I really like this week. This gives me the opportunity to officially trademark “Make-Up Bet Monday™.” What is “Make-Up Bet Monday™” you ask? This is where you take the sum of all the money you just lost on Saturday and Sunday (and possibly Thursday and Friday) and take your one shot to get it all back on Monday night with a big Monday Night Football wager. Is this always a good strategy? No. Is this ever a good strategy? Debatable, but if you are going to test it out then this is a good weekend to try it. New York is favored over Seattle why exactly? The only explanation I have is that it’s a west coast team traveling east, but the extra day of preparation mitigates that some. Plus, the Seahawks are just better. Even if Saquon plays, he will likely be limited and both starting tackles, Andrew Thomas and Evan Neal, are also listed as questionable for Monday’s game. Geno Smith and the Seahawks offense can score on this defense and I don’t think a not-entirely-healthy Giants offense can keep up.
Tier 2: Teams I Should Trust More Than I Do (Season Record: 4-4)
Colts -1.5 over Rams
Dolphins +3 over Bills
Browns -2.5 over Ravens
An irrational fear that one of these three teams might shank me this weekend kept me from putting any of these games a tier higher. For starters, Miami has given every indication that they should be favored in any game they play until further notice. Yet, other than the opening Monday Night stinker, Buffalo has played exactly like the team we expected, albeit against bad Raiders and Commanders teams. I can’t bet against Miami, but there’s a reason Buffalo is the favorite and everyone hasn’t bet their mortgage on Miami yet. Also, it’s going to be sunny and in the upper 70s in Buffalo on Sunday, so get ready to see some points and yards. Speaking of which, can I interest you in a special bet? Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen pass for 600+ combined yards is +350 on FanDuel right now. The winnings from that would more than make up for betting the wrong side of the line. Furthermore, Tyreek Hill OR Davante Adams to have 150+ receiving yards is +450 on FanDuel right now. Either one of those would make a decent payout, but what if half of Tua’s 300+ yards are to Tyreek Hill? Yahtzee!
The Colts and Browns are two teams that seemed trustworthy last week, but I’m having a hard time getting there. Indianapolis should beat this Rams team easily, and yet I can’t help but feel like they are capable of a stinker on any given week. Anthony Richardson is listed as questionable currently. He is the long-term answer at quarterback for the Colts, but presently I’m not actually sure Gardner Minshew doesn’t give them the best chance to win. With Nick Chubb out, Cleveland goes as Deshaun Watson goes and his uneven performance worries me. However, I do like the Browns defense and Baltimore’s offense is no less uneven than Deshaun Watson. I think the Browns are a hair better and they are playing at home. Lay the two-and-a-half, but don’t feel great about it.
Tier 3: Teams I Should Trust Less Than I Do (Season Record: 8-4)
Packers +1.5 over Lions
Vikings -3.5 over Panthers
Saints -3 over Bucs
Bengals -2.5 over Titans
Cowboys -6.5 over Patriots
One of my bad habits in picking games is a tendency to continue to ride certain teams even after they’ve shown me that’s a bad plan. The first step to fixing any problem is admitting there’s a problem. These are all teams that I’ve taken at least once already this season and lost. What’s the definition of insanity again?
There’s plenty of evidence to suggest the Lions are just better than the Packers, but with a short week to prepare and a game in Lambeau it feels like this is a division game for the taking. This bet is also a little bit contingent on at least two of Aaron Jones, Christian Watson and Jaire Alexander being available. If not, I’d probably just stay away. Jordan Love has looked good so far and I still think the Packers might be the best team in the NFC North when healthy. Thursday games always get a little weird too, so taking a home underdog feels like the play.
Kirk Cousins is still on pace for over 6,000 passing yards this season y’all. He’s also on pace for zero wins, but that’s a little beside the point. I can’t actually believe I’m suggesting Minnesota as a road favorite here, especially not with a spread greater than a field goal, but this Carolina team is that bad. Also, how about this for the last special bet of the weekend: Kirk Cousins OR Justin Herbert to pass for 4+ touchdowns at +330? Minnesota never gets themselves out of passing situations, nor do the Chargers. Neither of these teams are playing particularly good defenses this weekend either.
This will only be the second time I’ve picked New Orleans this season, but the last time I did I called it a lock. They pushed. This time we will temper expectations. New Orleans is three-plus points better than Tampa Bay and it’s in New Orleans, so this is the right play. On the other hand, the most on-brand move Baker Mayfield could pull would be to throw a touchdown pass with 12 seconds left in regulation to secure a 24-22 loss.
My entire confidence in Cincinnati is based on a 4th quarter drive to put the game away against an obviously bad Rams team. Joe Burrow still isn’t completely healthy, but the Bengals offense finally started to resemble the Bengals offense last Monday night. Tennessee has a good defense, which allowed them to play extremely tight against New Orleans to open the year and gut out an overtime win against a Chargers team that knows how to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory as well as anyone. Ryan Tannehill is washed though, and that was readily apparent against a good Cleveland defense on Sunday. Even on the road, I think Cincinnati starts to put it together this weekend.
This would have been a “Tier 1” game had it not been for “WTF Sunday.” I still don’t entirely understand how Dallas gave up 28 points to Arizona on Sunday. Much like quantum mechanics or the end of “American Psycho”, this will always be an unsolvable conundrum to me. Due to that, I’m choosing to call it an aberration and not put too much stock into it, at least not until I giddily bet against Dallas in the playoffs. New England, on the other hand, gutted out a victory against a bad Jets offense on Sunday, but I can’t imagine 15 points will be enough to beat or cover this Dallas team.
Tier 4: Flying or Falling With Style? (Season Record: 5-6)
Jaguars -3 over Falcons
Texans +3 over Steelers
Eagles -8.5 over Commanders
If you haven’t heard yet, Jacksonville and Atlanta will be playing the same game in two different places on Sunday morning, and neither of them are Jacksonville or Atlanta. Concretely, the Jaguars and Falcons will play at Wembley Stadium in London. Abstractly, they will play in a Toy Story-style live animation from Andy’s Room. This is a cool concept, but admittedly I am the key demographic for this idea (football obsessive from the prime Pixar generation). I will be giving the Toy Story feed some airtime on Sunday, just to see what it’s about. As for the game itself, both Jacksonville and Atlanta really need to declare whether they are going to put things together this season (a.k.a. fly) or continue to stumble towards a top 10 draft pick (a.k.a. fall with or without style). Falcons fans may think me two-faced after praising Atlanta last week, but I trust Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson more than Desmond Ridder and Arthur Smith. I think Jacksonville wins by at least a field goal.
We thought Houston would likely just fall apart again this year, but they rallied back to blowout Jacksonville last week. Demeco Ryans is a good coach and C.J. Stroud is already showing a lot of promise. He’s been the best rookie quarterback through three weeks. Am I crazy to think Houston wins this game at home against an untrustworthy Pittsburgh offense?
Philadelphia is all “Fly Eagles Fly” right now, but if you watch them play there are mild reasons for concern. This Eagles team leaves points on the board every week, whether that be a penalty that takes them out of field goal range or a failed 4th down attempt or two straight incompletions on 2nd and 2 that force them to settle for a field goal. Philadelphia has a bad habit of not finishing drives. It probably won’t bite them this week against a Washington team that I warned you wasn’t good, but it could cost them the cover, which is why I’m betting with caution.
Tier 5: DWDB, a.k.a. Don’t Watch Don’t Bet (Season Record: 4-6)
Bears +3.5 over Broncos
Chargers -5.5 over Raiders
Cardinals +14 over 49ers
Jets +9.5 over Chiefs
In the inpatient medical world, we have a practice of “handing off” patients from day shift to night shift, and then night shift back to day shift, and so on ad infinitum. One of my favorite phrases as a resident, especially for night shift handoff, was “DTDB” or “Don’t Touch Don’t Break”, which basically meant that the patient is stable and doing well so just leave him/her alone overnight and let him/her heal. This is my football watching equivalent. These games aren’t worth your time or money. Just leave them alone and let them play without your attention.
It could be mighty tempting to lay the big lines for San Francisco and Kansas City this week. Vegas is practically daring you too, but don’t get sucked in. Arizona is just decent enough, and San Francisco will be just apathetic enough up 17-20 late in the game, to score late and get a backdoor cover a la the Rams two weeks ago. Kyle Shanahan does not care about covering the spread I promise you. When the 49ers when this game 34-21 I will say, “I told you so.” In a similar vein, Pat Mahomes loves to screw around and try things on bad teams, and the Jets defense is good enough to make him pay for that a couple of times. I think this is a classic New York covers by having the final score look closer than the game was.
Los Angeles vs. Las Vegas is the most watchable game of this tier, but that still doesn’t make it watchable. The only pass I’ll give you is if you have something on the Cousins/Herbert or the Hill/Adams specials I mentioned earlier. The Chargers are professionals at giving games away, but this is a bad Las Vegas team with a bad defense. Justin Herbert should have a field day.
If you watch one single second of the Bears and Broncos on Sunday you’re a masochist. Denver should not get three-and-a-half points against anyone ever again.
Last Week: 10-6
Season Record: 24-23-1
Special Bet Dollar Value Lost (based on $10 per special bet): -$25
Cover Photo Courtesy of Reed Hoffman/AP
4 Down Territory 