Through two weeks, there’s still plenty of things we don’t know yet. However, a few teams have already declared themselves good. Others, unfortunately, have declared themselves decidedly bad. Then there’s a third category of teams. These teams, like the 2022 Detroit Lions, are not what anyone would call good, but they are decidedly frisky. These are the teams you definitely don’t want to bet on, but you take a big gulp before taking the other side of a seven-point spread too. These are the teams that kick a field goal as time expires to cover an eight-point spread. (Looking at you Sean McVay). These teams have a little fight in them, and while I don’t claim to have much in common with Heath Ledger’s Joker, I like that.

Tier 1: The Good (Season Record: 1-2-1)

49ers -10.5 over Giants

Dolphins -6.5 over Broncos

Cowboys -12.5 over Cardinals

San Francisco and Dallas have been the class of a top-heavy NFC so far in 2023, and nothing suggests that is going to change. These teams have met in the playoffs the last two seasons, and it seems likely they will meet up again. The only question is: which round of the NFC playoffs will they encounter each other? As for their games this week, San Francisco will manhandle a Saquon-less Giants team that is off to a horrendous start and Dallas’ defense is a terrible matchup for anyone but especially a Cardinals team without a consistent running game and a quarterback that’s still only a month into learning this offense. Christian McCaffrey to have 1+ receiving touchdown and 1+ rushing touchdown at 5/1 odds is a fun prop for the week too. With Brandon Aiyuk listed as questionable, it’s likely that McCaffrey will be an even bigger factor in the passing game than he normally is. You couldn’t make either of these lines high enough for me to bet the underdog.

Changing conferences, Miami has stood out in an AFC that was expected to be a much tighter race coming into the season. The Dolphins offense has a ton of speed and Tua Tagovailoa has made progress as a passer to augment his already quick processing speed and decision-making. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are the perfect receiving duo for Tua’s strengths. The Dolphins do come into this game a little banged up with Waddle and Savion Ahmed on the injury report, but I expect them to run wild in the thin Rocky Mountain air against a trash Broncos team.

Tier 2: Neither Good Nor Bad (Season Record: 3-2)

Vikings +1 over Chargers

Packers -2 over Saints

Eagles -4.5 over Buccaneers

The Los Angeles Chargers cannot get out of their own way. This is not new. This is the norm for this franchise and dropping to 0-3 on some bizarre 4^th quarter collapse as a road favorite the most on-brand outcome. Minnesota is a classic Jekyll and Hyde team. On the Jekyll side of things, the Vikings stormed back and had a chance to beat a good Eagles team on the road last Thursday night and Kirk Cousins is on pace to pass for over 6,000 yards this season. First, yes you did read that correctly. Second, do you #vike that? The Vikings are one of the best fourth quarter teams in football dating back to last year, making them the perfect team to fulfill the above prediction. On the Hyde side of things, Minnesota is 0-2 and lost to a mediocre-at-best Tampa Bay team on opening weekend.

Speaking of the Bucs, Baker Mayfield is a quintessential overperforming quarterback in the underdog role, but this is not a good team. They certainly aren’t the kind of team to beat a Philly team coming to town with 11 days to prepare. The Eagles were supposed to be the third head of the NFC power triumvirate, but they have yet to perform at the same tier as Dallas or San Francisco. There’s still time and the Eagles proved their mettle last year. However, the Super Bowl hangover is a real phenomenon and Philly is breaking in two new coordinators and a mostly new running back committee.

I thought Green Bay was good. For seven of eight quarters, the Packers were good. Then they went into the 4^th quarter against the Falcons with a 12-point lead. The offense went stagnant, and the defense decided to let Bijan Robinson loose. I still think Green Bay is a good team, and I like them at home, especially if at least two of Aaron Jones, David Bakhtiari and Christian Watson can play. New Orleans is a decent team, but they don’t have the firepower to go into Green Bay and win this game if the Packers are at full strength.

Tier 3: The Bad (Season Record: 5-3)

Bills -6.5 over Commanders

Titans +3.5 over Browns

Seahawks -6 over Panthers

Steelers +2.5 over Raiders

Who are the Bills and Seahawks really? Are they the frighteningly disappointing teams from week 1? Or are they the teams that took care of business in week 2? Time will tell but I still think both teams might be good, there’s just some data already to suggest they are capable of also being bad on the wrong week. However, the Commanders and Panthers are bad. Washington has got to be the worst 2-0 team in NFL history, or at least close. Unless Josh Allen decides to start handing out free interceptions like some kind of deranged carny, the Bills will cover this one. Likewise, I don’t foresee a scenario where Carolina’s defense can generate enough stops to keep this a one-score game.

Las Vegas is another team that I feel confident is bad. Pittsburgh’s offense might be bad, but if their defense continues to average 14 points per game then they will still be competitive. I doubt Las Vegas’s risk averse offense will provide the Steelers many scoring opportunities on Sunday, but I also doubt that they can generate many scoring opportunities of their own either. Kenny Pickett looked poised to have a Most Improved Player caliber season during the preseason, but his early performances have been disappointing. I still believe Pickett will be better than his first two performances, and I’m confused why this punchless Raiders team would be favored, even at home.

Admittedly neither Tennessee nor Cleveland fit this tier’s title well. How about Deshaun Watson is a bad person? We’ll go with it. Cleveland has looked like a decent football team when they aren’t giving up defensive touchdowns. Their defense is legitimately frightening, but Tennessee has demonstrated a big physical defense too and unfortunately Cleveland just lost their wrecking ball running back. I’m taking the team that still has its wrecking ball.

Tier 4: Bad But Not Frisky (Season Record: 3-5)

Chiefs -12.5 over Bears

Jaguars -8.5 over Texans

Patriots -2.5 over Jets

New York has the potential to become a frisky team with their defense, but Zach Wilson is borderline unwatchable. New England has played two good teams and come up just short. They might be this year’s good bad team, and if that’s true they should win this game. What seems more likely: Zach Wilson advances to 2-1 and drops Bill Belichick to 0-3 in the process or New England picks up a road win against a non-playoff team? I thought so too.

Houston and Chicago are both bad and might be the hardest teams to watch this season. DeMeco Ryans will turn things around in Houston eventually, and C.J. Stroud might be the right quarterback to head that turnaround, but this won’t be the year. It’s going to take time and talent acquisition to get that ship righted. Meanwhile in Chicago, how much longer do the Bears give Justin Fields to be the guy? They got him more weapons in the offseason, but it still seems like Fields is just a garbage time fantasy producer than the potential face of a franchise. Kansas City’s offense doesn’t look like the juggernaut we’ve come to expect them to be yet, but they don’t have to be this weekend. Two touchdowns might cover this spread.

Tier 5: The Frisky (Season Record: 2-5)

Colts +7.5 over Ravens

Falcons +3.5 over Lions

Bengals -2.5 over Rams

This Indianapolis bet comes with a caveat. If Anthony Richardson plays, I like the Colts to keep things close against Baltimore. Baltimore might be the good team I keep losing money going against this season, but I just can’t help but think that with Richardson at the helm this Colts team can put up some points and at least cover this spread. With Minshew at the helm, I’d take the Ravens.

Detroit was last year’s frisky team but have turned into this year’s media darling. Atlanta might be this year’s frisky team. Bijan Robinson looks like the next running back to enter a major contract dispute before his rookie contract ends. He didn’t just lead Atlanta back against Green Bay. He took the game over. Desmond Ridder still leaves something to be desired at the quarterback position, but with Robinson, Kyle Pitts and Drake London he has plenty of help. In the second special of the week, you can grab Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs 250+ combined all-purpose yards at +175. If you think this is a tight back-and-forth game, as I do, it’s a good bet these two will have monster numbers, especially with David Montgomery on the injury report for Detroit.

Has there ever been a less interesting Super Bowl rematch 18 months out from the original game? Cincinnati is off to a lackluster start with a clearly hampered Joe Burrow. Los Angeles might not be actively tanking, like I thought in the preseason, but they still aren’t very good. They might be frisky though. Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell aren’t the most dominant receiving duo in the league, but they do have the best name combination and have been wildly productive. Puka alone has 25 receptions in two games, a record for a rookie’s first two games in the NFL. Matt Stafford may have felt like he had trouble connecting to the younger guys in the preseason, but he is clearly looked up to as a leader and has already led them to one win and kept them competitive in a loss in games they easily could have been blown out. I desperately wanted to bet on the Rams here, and if Burrow can’t go that might be the play, but I still believe this Cincinnati team will turn things around and I don’t want to be the one holding onto the opposite end of the bet slip when they do. Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon should still feast on a vulnerable Rams secondary.

Season Record: 14-17-1

Special Bet Dollar Value Added (based on $10 per special bet): -$5

Cover Photo Courtesy of Danielle Parhizkaran/NorthJersey.com via Imagn Content