The above title, and all this week’s tier titles, comes from a line from the ‘90s Rush hit, “Roll the Bones”. If you’ve never heard it, do yourself a favor and go listen to it now. “Roll the Bones” has all the classic Rush features: thundering bass line, beautifully stunning hook/key change and a primal Geddy howl. I always think about this song somewhere around week two or three of the season when everyone is reacting, or overreacting, to early results. Week two is always the most difficult to me when you’ve got to decide how much to stick to your preseason thoughts and which teams to pivot on based on early performances, but scared money don’t make money so let’s “get out there and rock…and roll the bones”.

Tier 1: Faith is Cold as Ice (Season Record: 1-1)

Saints -3 over Panthers

Packers -1.5 over Falcons

Does anyone have a scenario in mind where the Saints don’t beat Carolina on Monday night? The game is in Charlotte, but nothing about the Panthers opening performance suggested anything other than that they are one of the worst and least talented teams in the league. New Orleans at least has some playmakers on both sides of the ball. Chris Olave is electrifying, and Michael Thomas looks like he still has something left in the tank. Derek Carr is a classic “no upsets” quarterback. He won’t win New Orleans many games this year, but he shouldn’t cost them any games either. This is the easiest bet of the week. Green Bay proved early last week that they still own Chicago, and Vegas has reacted (overreacted?) by making them road favorites. The Packers are better than the Falcons and good enough up front to make life uncomfortable for Desmond Ridder, even if Quay Walker is unavailable. Jordan Love showed enough last week to prove that he can win the Packers games even if Aaron Jones is limited or unavailable. Bet the Packers and feel good about it.

Tier 2: Jack, Relax (Season Record: 1-1)

Steelers +2.5 over Browns

Chiefs -3 over Jaguars

Bengals -3.5 over Ravens

New Orleans is the lock of the week, but Cleveland is the sucker bet of the week. Vegas is absolutely daring you to take all your Sunday winnings and throw it away on a Saints-Browns Monday night parlay. Don’t be a sucker! Pittsburgh got thumped by an excellent 49ers team, and yeah, I know Cleveland blew out a Bengals team that we expect to be an AFC contender. Don’t be fooled. Joe Burrow didn’t play in the preseason and everyone has off games. Mike Tomlin is one of the longest tenured coaches in the league for a reason, and Kevin Stefanski is not. Bet the Steelers and sprinkle a little on T.J. Watt 3+ sacks at +550. Kansas City’s receivers, specifically Kadarious Toney, raised lots of red flags on the Thursday night opener, but Andy Reid and Pat Mahomes laying three points with ten days of rest? C’mon man! Plus, Travis Kelce should be back in the mix to help open up the offense. Speaking of Cincinnati, they know they are one of the best teams in the AFC and they won’t no-show two division games in a row. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins had disappointing fantasy performances to open the year, but with Baltimore’s injuries in the secondary they will feast on Sunday.

Tier 3: Play Your Cards Show Us What You Got (Season Record: 3-1)

49ers -8 over Rams

Eagles -7 over Vikings

Colts -1 over Texans

Dolphins -2 over Patriots

San Francisco is one of the few teams whose Week 1 performance perfectly correlated with their preseason expectations. Brock Purdy looked sharp in his return from injury and his myriad playmakers showed why San Francisco is dangerous regardless of who’s playing quarterback, well at least as long as its an actual NFL quarterback. The Rams may have pantsed the Seahawks last week, but don’t worry the tank is still on! Philadelphia tried their damnedest to give one away last week, but betting against Kirk Cousins in primetime? That’s NFL gambling law. Indianapolis and Houston will give us our first rookie vs. rookie quarterback duel of the season. Anthoney Richardson has more, not by much though, help around him and he should be able to get his first win on the road on Sunday. Miami was the most impressive offensive of the weekend, even if Dallas and Green Bay scored more points. Tua looked healthy and, for all the talk of his injury concerns last season affecting him mentally, he did not play skittishly. Tyreek Hill looked like a man among boys and Jaylen Waddle made his own contributions. This team is primed to score a ton of points and I don’t think New England can keep up with them. Second special bet of the week: Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle 200+ combined receiving yards +180. Do we think Hill might get 200 yards on his own?

Tier 4: We Come Into the World to Take Our Chances (Season Record: 1-3)

Giants -6 over Cardinals

Seahawks +5.5 over Lions

Titans +3 over Chargers

Bears +3 over Buccaneers

New York and Seattle gave me third-degree burns last week, but apparently, I’m a glutton for pain because I’m coming back for more. Dallas put an absolute beatdown on the Giants on Sunday night, but Arizona has nowhere near the capability to make life impossible for Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley will run wild on this defense. Brian Daboll will adjust, and the Giants win comfortably this week. Speaking of overreactions, the Seattle-Denver line is the overreaction line of the week. Seattle and Detroit pointed their arrows in decidedly opposite directions to start the season. Seattle, coming off a surprising playoff run, laid an absolute egg at home, meanwhile the ballyhooed Lions went into Arrowhead and took down the Super Bowl champs in prime time. This feels like a great “zag” opportunity. Detroit’s offense was the reason for optimism coming into the year, and they took awhile to get going against a Chris Jones-less Chiefs defense. Seattle is better defensively. Geno Smith is better than Jared Goff. This line is at least three points too high. Ryan Tannehill looked kind of washed last weekend, which is a concern, but I think that Derrick Henry and Tyjae Spears can run on this Chargers defense. Also, Los Angeles never wins east of the Mississippi River. It never, ever happens. Don’t bet on it. The Bears-Buccaneers line is a classic overreaction line. Chicago losing as a home favorite traveling to a Bucs team that won as a road favorite in Week 1. Of course, Tampa Bay will win! Right? To quote the legendary, and possibly immortal, Lee Corso, “Not so fast my friend!” Baker Mayfield is a classic win you one-lose you one quarterback and is capable of defecating all over the pirate ship at Raymond James Stadium this week. Justin Fields will be better and the Roschon Johnson/Khalil Herbert/D’Onta Foreman rushing tandem looked capable of doing damage on some teams this year. Chicago is my bet for the “WTF happened here” win of the week.

Tier 5: Fate is Just the Weight of Circumstances (Season Record: 2-2)

Broncos -3.5 over Commanders

Jets +9.5 over Cowboys

Raiders +9.5 over Bills

The New York Jets keep finding new ways to agonize their fanbase, but they also found a way to epitomize a modern example of a Pyrrhic victory on Monday night. Here’s the thing. This Jets team is actually good, which is something that I was not convinced of before Monday night. Zach Wilson will hamstring how far the Jets can go, but the Jets defense and running game will make them competitive in any game they play. That’s the main reason I’m taking the points, even against a terrifying Dallas defense. I think the Jets defense and run game can keep this to a single-digit margin. Transitioning to the other storyline from Monday night, what the hell happened to Josh Allen? I’m choosing to believe that the Jets defense is just good and Allen will be fine, but I’m not prepared to spot them 9.5 on Sunday. To be fair, I really don’t feel great betting on a bad Raiders team traveling East either, maybe just stay away from this game altogether. Denver and Washington also fit squarely into the camp of teams I want no business betting on under any circumstances. I find it hard to believe the Commanders can win two games in a row though, so if forced to give a pick I’ll take the Broncos…let’s ride…I guess?

Season Record: 8-8

Special Bet Dollar Value Added (based on $10 per special bet): +$15

Cover Photo Courtesy of Discogs