After a stellar 2021, last year was an unmitigated disaster. The regular season record was abysmal. The postseason record was slightly better but mediocre. Then the Super Bowl came. I missed not one, not two, not three, but every single one of my Super Bowl bets and prop bets. Rest assured, I have been brooding on it for seven months and I’m ready to redeem last year’s putrid showing.

Tier 1: A Case in Addition by Subtraction (The 2023 Aaron Rodgers Story)

Bills -2.5 over Jets

Packers +1.5 over Bears

Who will be better this season: Aaron Rodgers’ new team or Aaron Rodgers’ old team? After a few years of media griping and public dissatisfaction, Aaron Rodgers is finally out of Wisconsin and under the bright lights of…East Rutherford, New Jersey. I don’t think there is any doubt that Rodgers makes the Jets better, but the fascinating question will be whether the Packers are better off without his drama? My bet is yes. Green Bay opens the season in Chicago, and while Aaron Rodgers can claim that he’s owned the Bears his whole career, the truth is that the Packers have owned the Bears my whole life. Chicago is getting some modest hype entering the season, but they still haven’t proven that they can field a dynamic offense or a passable defense. Moving to Rodgers’ new team, the Jets will host the Bills to open the season on Monday Night Football (which also happens to be 9/11). From an emotion and narrative standpoint, everything points to a Jets win, but this is the real world. Buffalo is a better and more complete football team. Josh Allen is healthy and has a better supporting cast than Rodgers, especially on the offensive line.

Tier 2: Early AFC West Implications

Chiefs -5.5 over Lions

Dolphins +3 over Chargers

Kansas City kicks off its title defense tonight against the sexiest pick of 2023: the Detroit Lions. Everyone seems to be flocking to the Lions bandwagon, but the Chiefs are still the team to beat. Even if Kelce can’t go, or is limited, Kansas City will still find ways to score. The biggest concern for the Chiefs is how the defense holds up against an admittedly potent Lions attack if Chris Jones doesn’t play. One can only assume that the Chargers are favored over the Dolphins because of…home field advantage? At full strength, Miami was better than the Chargers last year and that’s how they’ll start this year. Also, Los Angeles has no appreciable home field advantage with a rented stadium space and a non-local fanbase. In one of a few special bets for the week, this is also a good bet for highest scoring game of Sunday at +550. Also, Miami can be bet at 20/1 for highest scoring team on Sunday, giving you a nice 25+/1 return for both bets.

Tier 3: Hot Road Starts for Playoff Teams

Bengals -2.5 over Browns

49ers -2.5 over Steelers

Eagles -4 over Patriots

Jaguars -4.5 over Colts

Coming off playoff bids, these four teams start the season as road favorites, but there are good reasons to like all of them. Philadelphia is the most questionable in going to New England, but the Patriots still have lots of questions to answer to improve on last year’s disappointing season. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is coming off of one of the best seasons in franchise history. The Eagles did have to replace both coordinators and chose to replace their top running back, but otherwise most of their key pieces return, plus they added the “Baby Rhino” Jalen Carter. San Francisco’s season went up in flames when they literally couldn’t field a quarterback in the NFC Championship game, but those problems are behind them now. Pittsburgh should be better in Year 2 of the Kenny Pickett era, but this 49ers team is stacked on both sides of the ball and this is a small spread. The Battle for Ohio will be more interesting than last year’s lopsided Monday Night Football affair. Deshaun Watson is back, but he still hasn’t proven he is a good NFL quarterback anymore. Cincinnati proved last year that the previous year’s Super Bowl run was no fluke and they are still the best team in Ohio. Lastly, Jacksonville is better than Indianapolis. The Anthony Richardson experiment will be fun if nothing else, but Trevor Lawrence has grown into his own as a legitimate threat in the NFL and the Jaguars front office took strides in the offseason to put him in a position to succeed.

Tier 4: A Glass Menagerie

Titans +3 over Saints

Giants +3.5 over Cowboys

Broncos -4 over Raiders

Seahawks -5.5 over Rams

This felt like a random collection of games and my logic for picking these games is “fragile” at best. Seattle seems like a reasonable bet given that the Rams are tanking out of the gate and Cooper Kupp has already been declared out for Sunday’s game. I also love the Seahawks’ odds, at 14/1, to be the highest scoring team of Sunday. The NFC East division clash on Sunday Night Football should be one of the better games of opening weekend. Dallas has been a regular season juggernaut in the Dak Prescott era, but Brian Daboll is arguably the best coach in the NFL right now and the Giants will be competitive at home. On the flip side, Las Vegas is a bad team and the coaching upgrade in Denver is so tremendous it’s hard to imagine they don’t take a step forward. To be clear, this is more of a bet against the Raiders than an endorsement of the Broncos. Las Vegas is also the best bet to be the lowest scoring team on Sunday at 17/1 odds. Finally, Tennessee traveling to New Orleans feels like a trap game. Last year, an Atlanta team that was expected to be awful went into New Orleans on opening week and pulled off an upset. The Titans are a better team than the Saints and they are getting three points. Take the points.

Tier 5: Bad Teams, Big Underdogs

Cardinals +7 over Commanders

Panthers +3.5 over Falcons

Texans +10 over Ravens

Buccaneers +6 over Vikings

I really hate betting on bad teams and it’s reasonable to avoid these games altogether. Aside from the Rams, the Cardinals are the other team actively tanking team already this season. But, can you honestly say you feel good betting the Commanders as a full touchdown favorite over anyone? Washington is a great eliminator pick for the week, but don’t bet them. In a similar vein, the Panthers are expected to have some growing pains with Bryce Young taking the helm, but are we forgetting that this is Desmond Ridder’s first full season as the starter in Atlanta? He didn’t exactly inspire confidence last year and while his supporting cast is better, Atlanta’s roster isn’t significantly better than Carolina’s that they should be laying 3.5 points. Plus, since redemption is the theme of the week, Carolina needs to redeem the “Helmet Mary” loss to Atlanta last year. I also like this as the lowest scoring game of Sunday at 7/1 odds. Houston is finally back to trying to play competent football and Baltimore never covers double digit spreads. C.J. Stroud will have some growing pains, but Houston is already in a better spot than they were a year ago. On the other hand, Tampa Bay is undoubtedly worse off than they were a year ago, but have we already forgotten how much of a paper tiger the Vikings were? Minnesota was a quintessential win-without-covering team last year and they need to prove that they aren’t still that team.

Cover Photo Courtesy of Patrick McDermott/Getty Images